Expressing statistics by winning percentage
In an effort to make the statistics I've compiled easier to read and understand, I've attempted to present the results by winning percentage. What this means is that I've taken each individual metric and divided the positive results by the total results. This number was then multiplied by 100 to create a winning percentage (or grade).
As an example; and in an effort to keep the numbers easy to undersand, we will use Andreas Engqvist (number 63).
Engqvist has won 6 offensive-zone puck-battles and lost 6 offensive-zone puck-battles.
=6 OZPBW / (6 OZPBW + 6 OZPBL) = (6 )/ (12 ) = 0.5 *100 = 50
Therefore Eneqvist's winning percentage while battling for the puck in the offensive zone is 50%. Or, we can also say the Eneqvist wins 50% of his offensive-zone puck-battlles.
I've carried this equation through the other metrics as well:
%OZPB = percentage of offensive-zone puck-battles won
%SK+ = percentage of times player successfully skated puck into offensive zone
%DI+ = percentage of times player successfully dumped puck into offensive zone (possession gained or successful line change)
%DZPB = percentage of defensive-zone puck-battles won
%NZPB = percentage of neutral-zone puck-battles won
%DZFOW = percentage of wven strength defensive-zone face-offs won
%DZPKFOW = percentage of defensive-zone face-offs won while short-handed
%OZPPFOW = percentage of offensive-zone face-offs won while on the powerplay
%OZFOW = percentage of even-strength offensive-zone face-offs won
%OZPSTHRU = percentage of pointshots taken that reach the net (not blocked by defending forward)
The results are interesting and somewhat surprising. For example, Alexandre Picard has the top winning percentage (76) for defencemen when it comes to offensive-zone puck-battles. Picard's grade is in large part the result of solid choices when pinching in at the offensive blueline. Picard's numbers can also be explained by the small sample size; fewer games played. Roman Hamrlik has the second-best grade amongst defensemen (69). Hamrlik rarely makes mistakes on the ice. He makes solid decisions, and is consistently under-estimated by fans and media alike.
Two forwards share the top grade as far as offensive-zone puck-battles are concerned. Mathieu Darche and David Desharnais have each won 67% of their OZPBs. Darche's grade is the product of hard work, while the dimunitive Desharnais does it with a great stick, solid vision, and stereotype-defying puck-protection skills.
Among players with over 50 opportunities, Scott Gomez leads the team with an 85% success rate when skating the puck into the offensive zone. His mark is only slightly higher than fellow centreman Tomas Plekanec's 84.
The leaders in the next metric give us a solid idea of players' styles matching their roles. While Gomez and Plekanec are most successful when carrying the puck into the offensive zone, the leaders for successful dump-ins are two third and fourth liners; Jeff Halpern and Travis Moen share the team-lead with a 90% success-rate when dumping the puck in. This metric can be mis-leading in the sense that dump-ins leading to solid line-changes, or to clear the defensive-zone when killing a penalty are also included.
Travis Moen also leads the team with a 71% success rate when engaging in defensive-zone puck battles. Moen is strong on the half-wall, and rarely attempts a low percentage play; consistently choosing the workers' route (chip and battle) out of the zone. Among defensemen the leader in this metric is not unexpected. Hal Gill is successful in 69% of his defensive-puck battles. The big man is does it more with his reach, than with his strength and size; repeatedly chipping the puck to the supporting-centre, or his defensive partner.
Take-aways and give-aways are seperate metrics, and therefore have no value when expressed as a percentage. A ratio would work better here, but I decided to show the totals rather than break the numbers down. I feel they are more valuable in this form.
Among the Habs four true centremen, Tomas Plekanec leads the team with a 55% winning percentage for defensive-zone faceoffs. Scott Gomez is the surprising leader in the other faceoff categories; defensive-zone penalty killing faceoffs (56%); offensive zone faceoffs (66%); and offensive-zone powerplay faceoffs(66%). This is even more surprising given the fact that the overall team-leader in faceoff winning percentage is Jeff Halpern, yet Halpern doesn't lead the team in any of these categories. This can be explained in one of two ways; either Halpern's recent injury (I only started compiling these stats on December 31st, 2010) has hurt his success-rate, or his faceoff percentage drops substantially in key situations.
The leader in the final metric is Jaroslav Spacek. Among defensemen who have taken over 50 shots from the point in various situations, Spacek has gotten his shot past the shot-blocking forward 71% of the time. As for players with substantially more powerplay time, the leader becomes PK Subban with a 68% success-rate.
|%SKI +||100||83||95||82||92||63||80||87||38||100||76||76||92||84||81||100||81||83||100||88||78||86||%SKI +||82|
|%PS THRU||71||62||67||44||50||67||64||0||67||77||50||0||n/a||25||86||100||33||64||67||68||50||100||n/a||%PS THRU||65|