Monday, May 9, 2011

Montreal Canadiens 2010-2011 Offensive-zone Risk/Reward Ratings

Offensive pressure is a series of positive events (won puck-battle, completed pass, etc.) in the offensive-zone that occur in immediate succession. What this also implies is that a player whom has few positive events (won battles, successful passes, etc.), can kill an offensive foray even if other players on the ice are winning battles in the offensive zone.

By adding up all of a player's offensive-zone positive events (won-battles, successful passes) and dividing them by minutes played we can determine how successful a player is in the offensive-zone. We can do the same calculation with a player's offensive-zone negative-events (lost battles, incomplete passes).

We can then take this process one step further by subtracting the negative events per-minute from the positive events per-minute to come up with a risk/reward rating for a players ability to help create offense. The higher the number, the more this player helps rather than hurts a team in the offensive zone.



6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94
OZ POS 101 397 303 408 136 372 419 71 221 272 52 383 4 23 186 112 44 253 324 8 264 174 153 366 286 111 OZ POS
OZ NEG 64 340 264 311 123 223 296 25 180 146 30 325 3 24 114 85 21 238 206 8 183 112 74 181 221 105 OZ NEG
GAMES 21 44 29 40 34 42 44 20 42 43 14 44 2 3 27 27 12 43 43 3 29 31 37 44 40 30 GAMES
MIN/G 19 19 18 20 13 23 20 15 13 22 16 16 10 9 11 9 16 12 13 9 16 17 20 22 11 11 MIN/G
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER
MINUTES 404 817 536 809 448 953 863 303 554 954 230 699 20 26 304 241 191 496 553 26 461 513 733 980 446 319 MINUTES
POS/MIN 0.25 0.49 0.57 0.50 0.30 0.39 0.49 0.23 0.40 0.29 0.23 0.55 0.20 0.90 0.61 0.47 0.23 0.51 0.59 0.30 0.57 0.34 0.21 0.37 0.64 0.35 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 0.16 0.42 0.49 0.38 0.27 0.23 0.34 0.08 0.32 0.15 0.13 0.46 0.15 0.94 0.37 0.35 0.11 0.48 0.37 0.30 0.40 0.22 0.10 0.18 0.50 0.33 NEG/MIN
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER
EVENTS/ MIN 0.41 0.90 1.06 0.89 0.58 0.62 0.83 0.32 0.72 0.44 0.36 1.01 0.34 1.84 0.99 0.82 0.34 0.99 0.96 0.61 0.97 0.56 0.31 0.56 1.14 0.68 EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.03 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.07 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.05 -0.04 0.24 0.11 0.12 0.03 0.21 0.00 0.18 0.12 0.11 0.19 0.15 0.02 RISK/REWARD
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER


Most active?
The most active players in the offensive-zone per minute of ice-time among players with more than ten games played include Lars Eller (1.14 offensive-zone events per-minute played), Mike Cammalleri (1.06), Andrei Kostitsyn (1.01), Benoit Pouliot (0.99), Mathieu Darche (0.94), Max Pacioretty (0.97), , David Desharnais (0.96)
*observation: players with less penalty-killing minutes tend to have more o-zone events per minute of ice time*

Least active forwards?
The least active forwards in the offensive-zone per minute of ice-time (minimum 10 GP) include Jeff Halpern (0.58), Tom Pyatt (0.68), and Travis Moen (0.72)

Least active defensemen?
The least active defensemen in the offensive-zone per minute of ice-time (minimum 10 GP) include Hal Gill (0.31), Paul Mara (0.32), and Brent Sopel (0.34).

Which forwards help create the most offense?

The forwards with the most positive events in the offensive-zone per minute of ice-time include Lars Eller (0.64), Mathieu Darche (0.61), David Desharnais (0.59), Max Pacioretty (0.57), Mike Cammalleri (0.57), and Andrei Kostitsyn (0.55)

Which defensemen help create the most offense?
The Defensemen with the most positive-events in the offensive-zone per minute of ice time include James Wisniewski (0.39), PK Subban (0.37), and Yannick Weber (0.34)

Which forwards hurt the most by killing offensive pressure (incomplete pass, lost battle, etc.)?
Forwards with the most negative-events in the offensive-zone per minute of ice time include Lars Eller (0.50), Mike Cammalleri (0.49), Benoit Pouliot (0.49), Andrei Kostitsyn (0.46), and Scott Gomez (0.42).

Which defensemen hurt the most by killing offensive-zone pressure?
Defensemen with the most negative-events in the offensive-zone per minute of ice-time include James Wisniewski (0.23)and Yannick Weber (0.22), PK Subban (0.18), and Jaroslav Spacek (0.16)

Top risk /reward? (helps maintain offensive-zone pressure)
Players with the biggest difference between positive events and negative events in the offensive-zone include Mathieu Darche (0.24), David Desharnais (0.21), PK Subban (0.19), Max Pacioretty (0.18), and James Wisniewski (0.16)

Lowest risk / reward? (kills offensive-zone pressure)
Players with the smallest difference between positive events and negative events in the offensive-zone include Tom Pyatt (0.02), Benoit Pouliot (0.03), Jeff Halpern (0.03), Scott Gomez (0.07), Mike Cammalleri (0.07), and Travis Moen (0.07)

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