Thursday, May 26, 2011

Habs neutral-zone risk / reward ratings

The Montreal Canadiens lived and eventually died off the transition. It was a team built on speed, and a team built on speed is a team built to control the neutral-zone. Whether it's Hal Gill (speed not withstanding) holding the defensive blue-line, Travis Moen winning a wall battle, Scott Gomez carrying the puck into the offensive-zone, or Tomas Plekanec laying in a soft dump-in; all of these events constitute strong neutral-zone plays.

Neutral-zone risk / reward is a calculation where we take all of a player's positive-events in the neutral-zone (won puck-battle, successful dump-in, successful skate-in, successful pass, successful deak) and divide them by how many minutes a player plays. We then take a player's negative-events  in the neutral-zone ( lost puck-battle, unsuccessful dump-in / skate-in, unsuccessful pass, unsuccessful deak) and divide that by how many minutes a player plays. The negative events per minute played is now subtracted from the positive events per minute played to give us a player's risk / reward rating in that particular zone. The higher the number the better a player has played in the particular zone.

 Regular season raw data available here


Most active?

Among the Habs regulars Ryan White was the most active in the neutral-zone.White led the team with 0.96 neutral-zone events per minute of ice time. Other active players in the neutral-zone include Lars Eller  (0.98), Scott Gomez (0.86), Tomas Plekanec (0.85), David Desharnais (0.83), and Mike Cammalleri (0.83). The defenseman with the most events in the neutral-zone per minute of ice-time was PK Subban (0.62).


Least active?

Jaroslav Spacek had the least amount of events in the neutral-zone per minute of ice-time (0.32). Other players with few neutral-zone events include James Wisniewski (0.38) and Paul Mara (0.38). The forwards with the least amount of neutral-zone events per minute of ice-time were Mathieu Darche (0.64) and Jeff Halpern (0.64)


Helps the most?

The players with the most positive events in the neutral-zone per minute of ice-time were Lars Eller (0.61) and Ryan White (0.61). PK Subban led all defensemen with 0.42 positive-events in the n-zone per minute of ice-time.


Hurts the most?

Players with the most negative events in the neutral-zone per minute of ice-time include Ryan White (0.37), Lars Eller (0.35), David Desharnais (0.29), Benoit Pouliot(0.28), Scott Gomez(0.28), Tomas Plekanec(0.28), and Mike Cammalleri (0.28). The defensemen with the most negative-events per minute of ice-time were PK Subban (0.19) and Yannick Weber (0.19).

Top neutral-zone risk / reward rating

The player with the top risk / reward rating in the neutral-zone during the regular season was Travis Moen (0.32). Moen's success-rate for neutral-zone passing was terrible, but his work along the wall and ability to consistently dump the puck into the offensive-zone carried him to the top rating. Other players with strong n-zone ratings include Scott Gomez (0.30) and Brian Gionta (0.30). The top n-zone risk / reward rating among defensemen went to PK. Subban (0.23).


Lowest neutral-zone risk / reward rating

The player with the lowest risk / reward rating in the neutral-zone during the regular season was James Wisniewski (0.08). Other players with low neutral-zone risk / reward ratings include Roman Hamrlik (0.10) and Yannick Weber (0.11). The lowest neutral-zone risk / reward rating among the Habs forwards belongs to Benoit Pouliot (0.18).


6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 34 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94

POS/MIN 0.24 0.58 0.55 0.56 0.43 0.23 0.51 0.26 0.57 0.82 0.27 0.33 0.48 0.83 0.59 0.43 0.61 0.30 0.47 0.55 0.46 0.49 0.29 0.32 0.42 0.61 0.47 POS/MIN 0.44
NEG/MIN 0.08 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.21 0.15 0.20 0.12 0.25 0.52 0.17 0.17 0.23 0.74 0.39 0.21 0.37 0.13 0.28 0.29 0.11 0.22 0.19 0.15 0.19 0.35 0.18 NEG/MIN 0.22

6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 34 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94

EV/ MIN 0.32 0.86 0.83 0.85 0.64 0.38 0.71 0.38 1.34 0.45 0.50 0.71 1.57 0.98 0.64 0.98 0.43 0.75 0.83 0.57 0.71 0.48 0.47 0.62 0.96 0.65 EV/ MIN 0.65
RISK/REWARD 0.15 0.30 0.27 0.28 0.23 0.08 0.30 0.15 0.32 0.30 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.10 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.17 0.18 0.26 0.34 0.27 0.11 0.17 0.23 0.26 0.28 RISK/REWARD 0.22

6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 34 44 45 46 47 51 52 53 55 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94

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