Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Habs top offensive-zone contributors (playoff edition)

Weber and Cammalleri with top offensive-zone risk/reward rating

Offensive-zone contributors are defined in this system by players who contribute more positive-events (won puck-battles, successful passes, successful deaks, o-zone takeaways, shots through traffic) than negative-events (incomplete passes, lost puck-battles, offensive-zone shots-blocked, missed net on scoring chances) in the offensive-zone.

The first step toward the final risk reward rating is a calculation where we take a player's total minutes played in the playoffs and divide that by all of the negative-events listed above. This number becomes the negative-events per-minutes played (neg/min), and allows us to compare players despite their allotted ice-time.

We do the same calculation for positive-events to determine the number of positive-events per minutes played.

The negative events per minutes played is then subtracted from the positive-events per minutes played (pos/min) to give us the risk / reward rating. The higher the risk/reward rating the more a player helps rather than hurts a team in the offensive-zone.

Regular season offensive-zone risk/reward numbers listed for comparisons sake

PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 67 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER
RISK/REWARD 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.03 0.16 0.14 0.15 0.07 0.13 0.08 0.24 0.11 0.12 0.03 0.21 0.18 0.12 0.11 0.19 0.15 0.02 RISK/REWARD
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 67 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER


Playoffs



6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 68 75 76 81 94
OZ POS 39 93 145 124 31 65 137 2 62 57 86 85 31 23 16 51 20 29 100 53 50 OZ POS
OZ NEG 34 80 79 82 27 35 88 2 37 34 56 53 18 20 16 37 6 12 40 43 36 OZ NEG
GAMES 7 7 7 7 4 6 7 1 7 7 6 7 7 7 3 5 3 7 7 7 7 GAMES
MIN/G 17.7 19.7 23.6 23.3 17.8 22.4 22.6 13.2 16.6 23.3 18.3 15.7 6.6 14.9 6.2 11.1 8.8 23.4 28.6 13.1 9.9 MIN/G
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER
MINUTES 124 138 165 163 71 134 158 13 116 163 110 110 46 104 19 55 26 163 200 91 69 MINUTES
POS/MIN 0.31 0.67 0.88 0.76 0.44 0.48 0.87 0.15 0.54 0.35 0.78 0.77 0.67 0.22 0.86 0.92 0.76 0.18 0.50 0.58 0.72 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 0.27 0.58 0.48 0.50 0.38 0.26 0.56 0.15 0.32 0.21 0.51 0.48 0.39 0.19 0.86 0.67 0.23 0.07 0.20 0.47 0.52 NEG/MIN
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER
EVENTS/ MIN 0.59 1.25 1.36 1.26 0.82 0.74 1.42 0.30 0.85 0.56 1.29 1.26 1.06 0.41 1.72 1.59 0.99 0.25 0.70 1.05 1.24
RISK/REWARD 0.04 0.09 0.40 0.26 0.06 0.22 0.31 0.00 0.22 0.14 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.03 0.00 0.25 0.53 0.10 0.30 0.11 0.20 RISK/REWARD
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 22 32 44 46 52 53 55 57 58 68 75 76 81 94 PLAYER

Example of raw data gathered available here



Tops offensive-zone risk/reward rating
  1. Yannick Weber (0.53)
  2. Mike Cammalleri (0.40)
  3. Brian Gionta (0.31)
  4. PK Subban (0.30)
  5. Mathieu Darche (0.29)
  6. Ryan White (0.28)
  7. Andrei Kostitsyn (0.27)
  8. Tomas Plekanec (0.26)
  9. David Desharnais (0.25)
  10. Travis Moen (0.22)
  11. James Wisniewski (0.22)
  12. Tom Pyatt (0.20)
  13. Roman Hamrlik (0.14)
  14. Lars Eller (0.11)
  15. Hal Gill (0.10)
  16. Scott Gomez (0.09)
  17. Jeff Halpern (0.06)
  18. Jaroslav Spacek (0.04)
  19. Brent Sopel (0.03)
  20. Paul Mara (0.00)
  21. Benoit Pouliot (0.00)

Helps the most? (contributes and maintains offensive-zone pressure)
Players with the most positive-events per minute-played include David Desharnais (0.92), Mike Cammalleri (0.88), Brian Gionta (0.87), and Benoit Pouliot (0.86)

Hurts the most? (kills offensive-zone pressure)
Players with the most negative-events per minute-played include Benoit Pouliot (0.86), David Desharnais (0.67) and Scott Gomez (0.58)

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