Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Habs: Preseason Even-Strength Grades and Ratings for Forwards

These overall numbers are limited to even-stregth ice time. The sample for even-strength ice-time is our largest, so these numbers should give us our best comparables. Numbers in grey indicate players who have been sent to the Hamilton Bulldogs, or returned to their junior teams.



Overall Grades

Overall grades include the usual metrics, as well as offensive-output and traditional plus/minus.  Each positive or negative event has equal value. A point scored (goal or assist) has a value of 2. A positive plus/minus adds a positive event to the grade, a negative plus/minus rating removes a positive event from the overall grade.

#14 Tomas Plekanec, #13 Mike Cammalleri and recent-cut #63 Andreas Engqvist had the top even-strength grades during the preseason. Engqvist's 5on5 play was not the concern during the preseason, the issue was more with his penalty-killing and faceoff performance; he had the lowest short-handed risk/reward rating among players still with the Montreal.

#32 Travis Moen had the lowest grade among NHL players. Slightly lower than #46 Andrei Kostitsyn. #78 Olivier Archambault had the top grade among junior-age players, while the lowest grade of any player belonged to #43 Ian Shultz.

Of note: #11 Scott Gomez's grade improved 9 points compared to last year's regular season.



11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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WINS 145 206 211 182 45 27 41 106 10 23 116 116 93 78 110 82 78 109 138 124 114 132 134 59 44 45 WINS 4238
EVENTS 206 287 292 283 76 47 67 155 15 46 173 190 144 113 161 121 127 172 219 173 175 211 211 83 75 74 EVENTS 6032
GRADE 70 72 72 64 59 57 61 68 67 50 67 61 65 69 68 68 61 63 63 72 65 63 64 71 59 61 GRADE 70

11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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Overall Risk/Reward

A players risk/reward rating is a determination of the difference between the average number of "good plays" and "bad plays" a player makes. This rating does not take into account offensive output or traditional plus/minus. The number is broken down to represent the average difference ("good plays" minus "bad plays") for each minute of ice time. The higher the number, the more successful plays a player made. A player creates a high risk/reward rating by completing passes, winning puck-battles, winning races to loose pucks, successfully getting the puck deep into the opposition zone, etc. Any unsuccessful attempts at the previous examples results in a negative event or "bad play".

Scott Gomez had the best even-strength risk/reward rating of any player; slightly ahead of both #14 Tomas Plekanec and #13 Mike Cammalleri. The top risk/reward among junior-age players belonged to Michael Bournival. Bournival's rating was only surpassed by the aforementioned Gomez, Plekanec and Cammalleri. The lowest risk/reward among players still in Montreal belonged to #32 Travis Moen. The only other two roster players with risk/reward ratings under 1.00 are #72 Erik Cole, and #46 Andrei Kostitsyn.

The lowest risk/reward of any forward in camp was earned by #43 Ian Shultz. Shultz's r/r rating of 0.00 means that he produced the same amount of "bad plays" than "good plays" while on the ice at even-strength. The top rating among players sent to Hamilton belongs to #59 Brock Trotter; slightly ahead of #90 Philippe Lefebvre. 


11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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POS 145 206 211 182 45 27 41 106 10 23 116 116 93 78 110 82 78 109 138 124 114 132 134 59 44 45 POS 4238
NEG 61 81 81 101 31 20 26 49 5 23 57 74 51 35 51 39 49 63 81 49 61 79 77 24 31 29NEG 1794

11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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MINUTES 46 70 73 73 26 19 22 36 4 15 45 54 35 25 41 35 45 39 59 59 47 57 53 22 29 18 MINUTES 1697.68
POS/MIN 3.12 2.94 2.89 2.51 1.70 1.45 1.84 2.98 2.64 1.49 2.55 2.13 2.65 3.11 2.67 2.33 1.75 2.83 2.34 2.10 2.45 2.30 2.55 2.72 1.51 2.46 POS/MIN 2.50
NEG/MIN 1.31 1.15 1.11 1.39 1.17 1.07 1.17 1.38 1.32 1.49 1.25 1.36 1.46 1.39 1.24 1.11 1.10 1.64 1.37 0.83 1.31 1.38 1.47 1.11 1.06 1.59 NEG/MIN 1.06

11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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EVENTS/ MIN 4.43 4.09 3.99 3.90 2.88 2.52 3.01 4.35 3.96 2.97 3.81 3.49 4.11 4.50 3.91 3.43 2.85 4.47 3.71 2.93 3.76 3.67 4.02 3.83 2.58 4.05 EVENTS/ MIN 3.55
RISK/REWARD 1.81 1.78 1.78 1.12 0.53 0.37 0.67 1.60 1.32 0.00 1.30 0.77 1.20 1.71 1.43 1.22 0.65 1.19 0.97 1.27 1.14 0.92 1.08 1.62 0.45 0.88 RISK/REWARD 1.44

11 13 14 21 32 34 36 37 38 43 45 46 48 49 51 52 56 59 60 63 67 72 73 78 80 90
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