Monday, October 10, 2011

Vs Winnipeg 5-1 Win October 9, 2011

Price the difference, as Habs outshot and outchanced

The Montreal Canadiens defeated the Winnipeg Jets 5-1 Sunday evening. The Habs were out-shot by the Jets, but solid goaltending and timely scoring carried Montreal to their first win of the season.


Overall Grade

 Travis Moen had the top overall grade among skaters. His grade was buoyed by 2 points, a plus-2 traditional plus/minus rating, and 3 shots on goal. Josh Gorges had the second-best grade, followed by Tomas Plekanec and rookie defenseman Alexei Emelin.

The lowest overall grade went to Jaroslav Spacek; who was injured early in the game. The Jets came out of the gate flying (pun intended), so Spacek's grade is the result of Winnipeg's strong start. The lowest grades among the remaining players belonged to Andrei Kostitsyn, and Raphael Diaz.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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WINS 4 52 13 78 46 61 45 36 43 41 38 27 48 53 37 41 41 82 13 WINS 719
EVENTS 11 76 19 109 71 83 59 59 67 64 62 39 74 82 57 58 63 119 17 EVENTS 1092
GRADE 36 68 68 72 65 73 76 61 64 64 61 69 65 65 65 71 65 69 76 GRADE 66
PLAYER 6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31



Overall Risk/Reward Rating

Andreas Engqvist's work short-handed carried him to the team's top risk/reward rating. Among other players, PK Subban had the top overall risk/reward rating. Despite what some might have perceived as a below average performance, Subban's ability to win puck-races carried his rating. He won an incredible 19 puck-races during the game. Josh Gorges had the second-best risk/reward rating, followed by Tomas Plekanec.

Aside from players who left the game early with injuries (Cammalleri and Spacek), Diaz had the lowest overall risk/reward rating; just slightly below Brian Gionta.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 2 19 4 22 23 21 14 14 17 14 18 7 17 17 14 16 20 26 59 MINUTES 344
POS/MIN 2.08 2.60 2.05 3.00 1.88 2.67 2.54 2.62 2.48 2.79 2.12 3.90 2.52 2.55 2.45 2.43 2.03 3.11 0.22 POS/MIN 2.14
NEG/MIN 3.65 1.28 1.37 1.39 1.09 1.05 0.99 1.68 1.42 1.65 1.34 1.73 1.52 1.68 1.44 1.03 1.12 1.44 0.07 NEG/MIN 1.11

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 5.73 3.88 3.42 4.39 2.97 3.72 3.53 4.30 3.90 4.44 3.46 5.63 4.04 4.23 3.89 3.47 3.15 4.54 0.29 EVENTS/ MIN 3.25
RISK/REWARD -1.56 1.33 0.68 1.61 0.79 1.62 1.55 0.95 1.06 1.15 0.78 2.16 1.00 0.87 1.01 1.40 0.91 1.67 0.15 RISK/REWARD 1.03

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Overall Even-Strength Risk/Reward Rating

Engqvist had the top even-strength risk/reward rating; but played only 4 minutes. Gorges was otherwise the best Hab at even-strength, followed closely by PK Subban. Gorges completed 21 even-strength passes, while Subban completed 15. Plekanec had the top ES risk/reward among forwards. Followed closely by Moen and Erik Cole. Cole rebounded from a tough ES game versus the Toronto Maple Leafs. Emelin was also among the team leaders at even-strength.

After removing Spacek and Cammalleri from the equation, the lowest ES risk/reward belonged to Pacioretty. Pacioretty missed 6 opportunities to block passes, while completing only 8 of 14 passes.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 2 15 3 14 16 15 12 12 12 11 14 4 14 12 12 16 16 16 0 MINUTES 214
POS/MIN 2.08 2.41 2.38 2.87 2.34 2.95 2.15 2.78 2.24 2.69 2.12 4.86 2.33 2.23 2.53 2.51 1.94 3.22 0.00 POS/MIN 2.56
NEG/MIN 3.65 1.43 2.38 1.61 1.23 1.28 0.91 1.80 1.44 1.57 1.32 2.16 1.89 1.32 1.31 1.01 1.29 1.55 0.00 NEG/MIN 1.43

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 5.73 3.84 4.76 4.48 3.57 4.23 3.06 4.58 3.69 4.26 3.44 7.03 4.22 3.55 3.84 3.52 3.23 4.77 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 3.99
RISK/REWARD -1.56 0.98 0.00 1.26 1.11 1.68 1.24 0.98 0.80 1.11 0.81 2.70 0.44 0.91 1.23 1.51 0.65 1.67 0.00 RISK/REWARD 1.13

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Offensive-zone Even-Strength Risk/Reward Rating

Only half of the Habs entire roster had offensive-zone risk/reward ratings in the positive. The 5-1 win makes it easy to forget that the Habs only managed 17 even-strength shots the entire game. Montreal won only 10 of 21 offensive-zone puck-battles at ES. By comparison they won 30 of 50 o-zone puck-battles against Toronto.

Aside from the rarely-used Engqvist, Moen had the top o-zone risk/reward at even-strength. The next-best rating belonged to David Desharnais, followed by PK Subban. Not including Cammalleri and Spacek, Erik Cole had the lowest o-zone risk/reward. Cole lost possession of the puck 4 separate times while attempting to beat opposing players 1on1 (deak). He also missed the net with 2 of his 4 shot-attempts.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 2 15 3 14 16 15 12 12 12 11 14 4 14 12 12 16 16 16 0 MINUTES 214
POS/MIN 0.52 0.46 0.68 0.21 0.55 0.20 0.75 0.57 0.80 0.74 0.22 1.62 0.51 0.17 0.41 0.06 0.13 0.37 0.00 POS/MIN 0.42
NEG/MIN 1.56 0.59 1.02 0.35 0.43 0.13 0.25 0.74 0.56 0.65 0.07 0.54 0.73 0.33 0.65 0.06 0.19 0.19 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.39

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 2.08 1.04 1.70 0.56 0.99 0.34 0.99 1.31 1.36 1.39 0.29 2.16 1.24 0.50 1.06 0.13 0.32 0.56 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 0.81
RISK/REWARD -1.04 -0.13 -0.34 -0.14 0.12 0.07 0.50 -0.16 0.24 0.09 0.15 1.08 -0.22 -0.17 -0.25 0.00 -0.06 0.19 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.03

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Defensive-zone Even-Strength Risk/Reward Rating

Gorges had far-and-away the top d-zone risk/reward at even-strength. Gorges blocked 5 shots, completed 19 of 25 passes, and won 6 of 11 d-zone puck-battles. Emelin had the second-best d-zone risk/reward, followed by Plekanec. Emelin won 7 of 13 d-zone puck-battles and completed 13 of 18 d-zone pass-attempts.

Desharnais had the lowest d-zone risk/reward rating, and was the only non-injured player in the negative. Other players with low d-zone risk/reward ratings include Moen and Kostitsyn.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 2 15 3 14 16 15 12 12 12 11 14 4 14 12 12 16 16 16 0 MINUTES 214
POS/MIN 1.04 0.85 0.00 1.89 0.62 2.55 0.41 0.74 0.64 1.02 1.61 1.35 0.87 1.65 0.82 1.82 1.48 1.98 0.00 POS/MIN 1.29
NEG/MIN 2.08 0.59 0.34 1.05 0.43 1.14 0.33 0.65 0.72 0.83 1.03 1.08 0.44 0.99 0.57 0.94 1.03 1.24 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.83

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 3.13 1.43 0.34 2.94 1.05 3.69 0.75 1.39 1.36 1.85 2.64 2.43 1.31 2.64 1.39 2.76 2.52 3.22 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 2.11
RISK/REWARD -1.04 0.26 -0.34 0.84 0.18 1.41 0.08 0.08 -0.08 0.19 0.59 0.27 0.44 0.66 0.25 0.88 0.45 0.74 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.46

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Neutral-zone Even-Strength Risk/Reward Rating

 Erik Cole had the top ES neutral-zone risk/reward. He was successful with all 4 of his attempted dump-ins, and 4 of 5 attempts to carry the puck into the offensive-zone. He also won all 3 neutral-zone puck-battles he engaged in. Other players with high n-zone risk/reward ratings include Engqvist and Subban.

Pacioretty had the lowest neutral-zone risk/reward at even-strength. He lost 3 of 4 n-zone puck-battles.

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 2 15 3 14 16 15 12 12 12 11 14 4 14 12 12 16 16 16 0 MINUTES 214
POS/MIN 0.52 0.78 1.36 0.63 0.74 0.20 0.83 1.14 0.48 0.65 0.29 1.62 0.80 0.33 1.23 0.57 0.32 0.74 0.00 POS/MIN 0.67
NEG/MIN 0.00 0.39 1.36 0.21 0.37 0.00 0.33 0.57 0.16 0.09 0.22 0.54 0.73 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.06 0.12 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.24

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EV/ MIN 0.52 1.17 2.72 0.84 1.11 0.20 1.16 1.72 0.64 0.74 0.51 2.16 1.53 0.33 1.31 0.57 0.39 0.87 0.00 EV/ MIN 0.91
RISK/REWARD 0.52 0.39 0.00 0.42 0.37 0.20 0.50 0.57 0.32 0.56 0.07 1.08 0.07 0.33 1.14 0.57 0.26 0.62 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.43

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Powerplay Risk/Reward Rating

 Pacioretty had the top powerplay risk/reward rating. Followed closely by Plekanec, Desharnais and Weber. Pacioretty and Desharnais completed all 6 of their PP pass-attempts, while Plekanec completeed 6 of 8.

Cole and Gionta had negative risk/reward ratings while playing on the powerplay. Cole wasn't able to complete either of his 2 pass-attempts, while Gionta missed 2 passes.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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MINUTES 0 3 1 3 3 0 0 1 3 2 3 0 3 2 2 0 0 3 0 MINUTES 241
POS/MIN 0.00 3.49 2.00 4.00 1.32 0.00 0.00 2.06 3.49 4.14 2.17 0.00 3.28 3.64 1.83 0.00 0.00 2.61 0.00 POS/MIN 0.38
NEG/MIN 0.00 1.16 0.00 1.23 1.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 1.78 2.17 0.00 0.30 1.21 3.05 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.14

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 0.00 4.65 2.00 5.23 2.97 0.00 0.00 2.06 4.26 5.92 4.33 0.00 3.58 4.86 4.88 0.00 0.00 3.19 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 0.52
RISK/REWARD 0.00 2.33 2.00 2.77 -0.33 0.00 0.00 2.06 2.71 2.37 0.00 0.00 2.99 2.43 -1.22 0.00 0.00 2.03 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.23

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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Short-handed Risk/Reward Rating

Travis Moen had the top PK risk/reward rating, followed closely by Diaz. Both players played around 2 minutes short-handed. Hal Gill had the third-best PK risk/reward against the Jets. Big number 75 blocked 2 passes, 2 shots, and completed 2 of 3 attempts to dump the puck out of the d-zone.

Three players had PK risk/reward ratings in the negative; Gionta, Emelin and Weber. Emelin's PK minutes were limited, while both Gionta and Weber had trouble blocking passing lanes in both the defensive and neutral-zones.


6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
TM TOT
MINUTES 0 0 0 5 4 6 2 1 2 1 2 3 0 3 0 1 4 6 0 MINUTES 39
POS/MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.73 0.28 2.01 4.81 0.00 2.66 2.03 2.00 2.79 0.00 2.96 0.00 0.00 2.38 3.09 0.00 POS/MIN 2.46
NEG/MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.47 0.56 0.84 2.40 0.00 1.60 1.35 0.00 1.24 0.00 4.44 0.00 1.89 0.71 1.79 0.00 NEG/MIN 1.46

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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EVENTS/ MIN 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.19 0.83 2.85 7.21 0.00 4.26 3.38 2.00 4.02 0.00 7.41 0.00 1.89 3.10 4.88 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 3.91
RISK/REWARD 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.26 -0.28 1.17 2.40 0.00 1.06 0.68 2.00 1.55 0.00 -1.48 0.00 -1.89 1.67 1.30 0.00 RISK/REWARD 1.00

6 11 13 14 21 26 32 46 51 52 61 63 67 68 72 74 75 76 31
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How we calculate player grades and ratings


Overall grades include the usual metrics, as well as offensive-output and traditional plus/minus.  Each positive or negative event has equal value. A point scored (goal or assist) has a value of 2. A positive plus/minus adds a positive event to the grade, a negative plus/minus rating removes a positive event from the overall grade.

A players risk/reward rating is a determination of the difference between the average number of "good plays" and "bad plays" a player makes. This rating does not take into account offensive output or traditional plus/minus. The number is broken down to represent the average difference ("good plays" minus "bad plays") for each minute of ice time. The higher the number, the more successful plays a player made. A player creates a high risk/reward rating by completing passes, winning puck-battles, winning races to loose pucks, successfully getting the puck deep into the opposition zone, etc. Any unsuccessful attempts at the previous examples results in a negative event or "bad play".

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