Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Habs vs. Boston 1-0 Loss November 21, 2011

The Gap increases
Subban Habs best skater, while Plekanec uncharacteristically struggles




The Montreal Canadiens gave up only 16 even-strength shots to the visiting Boston Bruins. Eventually losing a well-played game by a score of 1-0.











The above charts are visual representations of the percentage of total events that take place in each zone. The top chart is the Habs season average, while the lower chart is from the 1-0 loss to the Boston Bruins. As we can see, the Habs had 5 % more offensive-zone events against the Bruins, four percent less defensive-zone events, and 1 % less neutral-zone events. The events used to calculate these percentages do no include those events that take place on the powerplay or while short-handed. In short, During this loss to the Bruins, the Habs produced more offensive pressure, while facing less defensive pressure than their season average.

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Overall grades can also be expressed as the percentage of positive-events a player produces. They are also different than risk/reward in the fact that they take into account traditional plus/minus, as well as shot and point totals.

Ten players had overall grades above their season average. Despite playing less than five minutes, Aaron Palushaj had the top grade; Palushaj produced only 2 negative events the entire game. Travis Moen and Lars Eller were the only players with grades below 60. Eller in fact, had one of his lowest grades of the season.

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Broken down into its simplest form, Risk/reward is simply the difference between the number of "good plays" a player produces, and the "bad plays" a player produces for each minute they are on the ice. The higher the number the more a player helps their team maintain puck-possession throughout the game.

Thirteen players had overall risk/reward ratings above their season average. By extension, the fact that Carey Price faced only 18 shots could be explained in that five of the six defensemen had overall ratings above their season average.  PK Subban had the top overall risk/reward rating, followed by Scott Gomez and Aaron Palushaj.

Eller had the lowest overall rating. Other players with overall risk/reward ratings below 1.00 include Moen and Mike Cammalleri.

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Even-strength risk/reward rating is identical to overall risk/reward rating, except in the fact that it only takes into account events that take place at even-strength.

Twelve players had EVEN-STRENGTH risk/reward ratings above their season average. Five of those player were defensemen. Subban had the top ES rating, followed closely by Mathieu Darche, Gomez, and Palushaj. Darche and Subban produced their best work in the defensive-zone, while Gomez and Palushaj's ratings wore the product of solid numbers in the offensive-zone.

Lars Eller had the lowest even-strength rating. Eller's rating was hurt by an inability to get shots on net, and a 33% defensive-zone passing percentage. The incredibly consistent Plekanec surprised, as he produced the second lowest even-strength rating.

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Offensive-zone risk/reward ratings are identical to even-strength risk/reward ratings, except in the fact that they only take into account EVEN-STRENGTH events that take place in the offensive-zone.


Only six players had EVEN-STRENGTH offensive-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. None of these players were defensemen. David Desharnais had far-and-away the top o-zone rating (to the point where I had to check and re-check the data multiple times). Number 51 had an incredible 13 offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries, while also completing 12 of 16 offensive-zone passes.


Three players had o-zone ratings in the negative including Nokelainen, Emelin and St. Denis. A negative rating indicates that a player produced more events that lost or failed to gain puck-possession, than managed to retain or acquire puck-possession.

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Defensive-zone risk/reward ratings are identical to even-strength risk/reward ratings, except in the fact that they only take into account EVEN-STRENGTH events that take place in the defensive-zone.

Eleven players had defensive-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. Five of those players were defensemen. Subban had the top d-zone rating, followed by Nokelainen and Darche. Subban completed 23 of 28 d-zone passes, while Darche had 5, and Nokelainen managed 4 loose-puck recoveries. 

For the first time ever, Plekanec had the lowest defensive-zone risk/reward rating. Number 14 completed only 2 of 4 defensive-zone pass-attempts, while winning only 50% of his d-zone puck-battles. In Plekanec's defense, 40 % of his total events took place in the offensive-zone, while only 32% took place in the d-zone.

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Neutral-zone risk/reward ratings are identical to even-strength risk/reward ratings, except in the fact that they only take into account EVEN-STRENGTH events that take place in the neutral-zone.

Nine players had neutral-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. Recent AHL call-ups Frederick St. Denis and Aaron Palushaj had the top n-zone ratings. Desharnais was the only player with a negative n-zone risk/reward rating. 

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Short-handed risk/reward ratings are identical to even-strength risk/reward ratings, except in the fact that they only take into account events that take place while the team is short-handed.

Five players had short-handed risk/reward ratings above their season average, while Nokelainen was the only player with a SH rating in the negative.

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Powerplay risk/reward ratings are identical to even-strength risk/reward ratings, except in the fact that they only take into account events that take place while the team is on the powerplay.


Only 4 players had powerplay risk/reward ratings above their season average. Subban had the top powerplay rating, while Darche and Cole had PP ratings in the negative. Cole completed only 1 of 3 PP pass-attempts, while Darche lost his only powerplay puck-battle.

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