Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Spacek just hitting his stride before most recent injury

Trending the performances of left-handed defensemen Jaroslav Spacek and Frederic St. Denis

Spacek posted above-average grade in 3 straight games prior to injury

Graph and write-up for right-handed defensemen available here
Graph and write-up for other left-handed defensemen available here

The below graph is a visual representation of the above players' overall risk/reward rating through the first 24 games of the 2011-2012 season. Each point on the data line is the player's rating from the game indicated at the bottom of the graph. The white line is the entire team's average (not just the average from these players) from each game.

Broken down into its simplest form, Risk/reward is simply the difference between the number of "good plays" a player produces, and the "bad plays" a player produces for each minute they are on the ice. The higher the number the more a player helps their team maintain puck-possession throughout the game.

Some of the events that used to determine a player's overall risk/reward include:

  • Successful or unsuccessful passes
  • Successfully or unsuccessfully beating an opponent 1on1 (deke)
  • Successful or unsuccessful shot-attempts (puck on net)
  • Successful or unsuccessful dump-ins
  • Successful or unsuccessful puck-battles
  • Successful or unsuccessful loose-puck recoveries
  • Successful or unsuccessful blocked passes
  • Successful or unsuccessful blocked shots
  • Successful or unsuccessful stick-checks


 Despite a large dip in his trend line at the beginning of the season, Jaroslav Spacek has actually been more consistent than many people give him credit for. The dip is actually from a game against the Winnipeg Jets where Spacek was hurt after playing only 2 minutes. His overall risk/reward for the season places him 6th out of 9 defensemen. He has posted an above-average risk/reward in 6 of the 12 games he's played, while posting a grade above 2.00 on one occasion.

Spacek has the top neutral-zone passing success-rate among Canadiens d-men, while his d-zone passing percentage places him fourth.

Frederic St. Denis started his NHL career strong with 2 straight overall risk/reward ratings above the team average. His most recent ratings are hurt by the fact that he has been playing few minutes, while also playing out of position. Through 6 games he has had an above-average rating 3 times. His top rating was 1.66, while his lowest occurred in the recent game against the Philadelphia Flyers; where he posted a -0.30. 

Among Habs defensemen, St. Denis has the third-best defensive-zone, and the fourth-best neutral-zone passing percentage.

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