Monday, December 12, 2011

Eller playing the best hockey of his career

Recent play challenging Plekanec's dominance in ratings

Most of the last 10 games have seen Lars Eller post risk/reward ratings among the Montreal Canadiens team leaders. In fact, his solid even-strength play is now recognized with the top even-strength risk/reward rating among active forwards, and the third-best overall; behind only PK. Subban and Josh Gorges.



Lars Eller's overall risk/reward rating is currently fourth among forwards; behind Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec and Max Pacioretty.  That said, he does not enjoy the same amount of powerplay time as the three forwards ahead of him in the ratings.

Eller has earned an above-average overall risk/reward rating in 15 of the 28 games he has played this season. His most recent 7 games have been beyond impressive, as he's posted above-average ratings in 6 of the last 7 games.


Offensive-zone


Prior to the the most-recent 7 games, Eller's offensive-zone risk/reward rating was the most inconsistent of any zone. He earned an o-zone rating above the team average 15 times overall. But, has been above-average five times in the last 7 games.

Eller has the second-best even-strength offensive-zone risk/reward on the team. He has produced the fourth-most offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries per minute-played (0.33), and is the eleventh-ranked forward for offensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage (47%). He also has the fifth-best offensive-zone passing success-rate (59%).

Defensive-zone

Number 81's defensive-zone play has been absolutely stellar. That said, he does have the luxury of favourable match-ups, as Plekanec usually plays against the other team's best players. Keeping in mind that forwards rarely produce above-average d-zone ratings, Eller still has had an above-average defensive-zone rating in 11 games; including 5 of the last 8.

Eller has the best defensive-zone risk/reward rating among forwards. He has recovered the highest rate of loose-pucks in the defensive-zone, while also winning 60% of his defensive-zone puck-battles; second only to Mathieu Darche among forwards. His d-zone passing percentage (70%) is sixth among forwards, as well.


Neutral-zone

Eller's neutral-zone play has produced his lowest-rating. That said, it has been strong lately, as he's produced an above-average neutral-zone risk/reward rating in 6 of the last 8 games, while only producing an above-average rating in 3 games through the season's first 20 games.  

Eller has the eleventh-best neutral-zone risk/reward rating among forwards. he has recovered the fourth most neutral-zone loose-pucks, while winning 57% of his neutral-zone puck-battles; good enough for fourth-best among forwards. His neutral-zone passing success-rate of 68% is tenth-best.

Other statistics

Eller has an above-average success-rate when attempting to acquire puck-possession from the opposition by way of a won puck-battle, blocked pass, etc. His 70% efficiency in this metric places him 10th among his teammates. He has a below average rating when attempting to maintain puck-possession by way of a pass, deke, etc. His 64% efficiency places him 14th among his teammates.

Eller has the fourth-best EVEN-STRENGTH ratio among his teammates. His ES ratio of 1.92 indicates that Eller makes 1.92 successful puck-possession plays for every 1 mistake, failed pass, or lost puck-battle.

A quick look at Eller's trend-lines through the last 8 games is quite impressive. His game has come a long way since early last season. While his performance in the playoffs were a definite indication of the 22-year-old's potential, his current level of play still remains surprising. quite frankly, the only thing separating him from having the top overall risk/reward rating among forwards is powerplay time.

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