The below graph is a visual representation of the above player's overall risk/reward rating through the first 25 games of the 2011-2012 season. Each point on the data line is the player's rating from the game indicated at the bottom of the graph. The grey line is the entire team's average from each game.
Broken down into its simplest form, Risk/reward is the difference between the number of "good plays" a player produces, and the "bad plays" a player produces for each minute they are on the ice. The higher the number the more a player helps their team maintain puck-possession throughout the game.
Some of the events that used to determine a player's overall risk/reward include:
- Successful or unsuccessful passes
- Successfully or unsuccessfully beating an opponent 1on1 (deke)
- Successful or unsuccessful shot-attempts (puck on net)
- Successful or unsuccessful dump-ins
- Successful or unsuccessful puck-battles
- Successful or unsuccessful loose-puck recoveries
- Successful or unsuccessful blocked passes
- Successful or unsuccessful blocked shots
- Successful or unsuccessful stick-check
Andrei Kostitsyn is a below-average player with above-average expectations. He offers glimpses of the better player he can be, but at some point the cord may need to be cut. Number 46 simply hurts this team more than he helps. Irregardless of what these statistics say, the Habs record with and without Kostitsyn this season speaks volumes. Montreal is a painful 5-10 with him in the line-up, and a mediocre 5-5 without him.
Andrei Kostitsyn has the Montreal Canadiens third-lowest overall risk/reward rating (0.85); ahead of only Micheal Blunden and Travis Moen. Kostitsyn has produced an above average rating in only 2 of the 14 games he's played, and has never earned an overall risk/reward rating above 1.70. In fact, number 46 has notched a rating above 1.00 only three times.
His even/strength ratio is a team-low 1.51. Expressed differently, this shows that Kostitsyn makes 1.51 plays that maintain, or attain puck-possession for every 1 play that loses, or fails to acquire puck-possession. By comparison Tomas Plekanec has an ES ration of 2.09.
He has the worst even-strength risk/reward on the team, as well as the lowest defensive-zone risk/reward. He also has the 17th-best neutral-zone risk/reward. Even his offensive-zone ratings are unimpressive. Among the 16 forwards who have played for the Habs this season, he has only the eleventh-best offensive-zone risk/reward.
Kostitsyn kills too many offensive-opportunities. He has the lowest offensive-zone passing success-rate (50%) on the team (including defensemen). Expressed differently, this means that half of the time Kostitsyn attempts to make a pass in the offensive-zone Montreal loses possession. He has the ninth-best offensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage (48%), but has the ability to recover loose pucks in the o-zone, as he has the third best rating in this metric.
Even his powerplay stats are ugly. He has won only 30% of his offensive-zone puck-battles while playing on the powerplay, and has the worst offensive-zone passing percentage on the PP. That said, he is Montreal's fourth-best player when it comes to getting PP shots through to the net, as he gets 71% of his shots through.
This isn't meant as a trade Kostitsyn rant. It's simply an attempt to paint a picture of his value to the team. The time may have come to stop worrying about the player he may become somewhere else, and start focusing on the player he is right now.
Feel free to email me with any questions or comments