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Monday, January 31, 2011

HABS 2010-2011



Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Overall Risk/Reward Ratings


Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Offensive-zone Risk/Reward Ratings


Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Neutral-zone Risk/Reward Ratings


Montreal Candiens 2011 Playoff Risk/Reward Ratings


Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Raw Data
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Sunday, January 30, 2011

Is a Sniper the Answer?

The past tells us, for the most part, everything we need to know about the future. If we take information we already have, extrapolate it, then dilute it using the law of averages, we can usually get an idea of future results.

With the plethora of statistics currently available, this exercise can translate to the game of hockey. We can take year-to-date statistics in order to predict the Montreal Canadiens post-all star results. We can then use these statistics, and their extrapolated results to determine possible team-needs moving forward.


Home and Away Record

Coming into the all star break the Habs' home record of 16-6-4 was fourth-best in the league. Countering this is their road record of 11-12-1; placing them 22nd among all NHL teams. Montreal has 15 home games left, while they will be playing away from the Bell Centre 17 more times.


Results

If we take their record to-date and carry it through until the end of the season the team could go 9-3-2 at home down the stretch, while carrying a road record of 8-9 down the stretch. This logic would see the team post a 17-12-3 record to finish the year 44-30-8; good enough for 96 points.


Record Against Divisional Opponents

Another possibility is to use the team's record against specific divisions to predetermine possible results. To-date the Habs have had success against opponents from the North-East (11-3-1) and Pacific Divisions (3-1-1), but have struggled against the South-East (3-4-2) and Central (0-3-0) division teams. Their record against Atlantic (8-6) and Northwest (2-1-1) division squads simply help maintain the team's average. Going forward, Montreal will play South-East division teams 11 times; Atlantic teams 6 times; North-East teams 9 times; Northwest teams 3 times; and Central division teams 3 times.


Results

If we take this example forward the team could go 16-13-3 down the stretch. This would see them finish the season with a 43-31-8 record; good enough for 94 points.

As we can see both exercises yielded similar results. Using these numbers to indicate whether or not the Canadiens will make the play-offs, we need to look at past-years' results; Ninety-four points have been good enough to make the play-offs every year since the lockout.


Current Team Statistics

Current player and team statistics can also help to establish possible reasons for current results, while enabling team management to determine needs moving forward. Montreal continues to be offensively challenged. The Habs 130 goals scored to-date place them 22nd in the league for goals-scored-per-game. Defensively, the team has been solid; with a goals-against-average good enough for 6th in the league.

While their five-on-five play has improved since last season, it is still only good enough for 13th in the league. The trend showing an offensively-challenged team continues through special teams. The power-play sits 11th, while the 6th place penalty-killing matches the team's overall defensive placement. The Canadiens also need to improve their face-off percentage; they are currently 18th in the league. Halpern's shoulder problems could really hurt the team going forward, as his work in the circle has degraded since the injury.


Breaking Down the Offence

Statistics for shots taken and shots allowed yielded surprising results. Counter to previously mentioned offensive/ defensive results, Montreal has taken the sixth-most shots on net, while allowing the thirteenth-most shots against. Taking this metric forward we see the team's shooting percentage averages out to 7.9%. For comparison sake, the leagues' top-30 shooting-percentage leaders range from 15.5% to 22.6 %. Montreal's top marksman (10 goals or more) is Benoit Pouliot (14.4%). Among top-6 forwards Tomas Plekanec leads with a shooting percentage of 11.2%. Brian Gionta is struggling here; the team captain is beating goalies with only 8.3% of his shots.


Moving "Forward"

The Canadiens came into this season looking to improve on specific aspects of their game. Their main focus going into camp was to establish a system that would allow them to spend less time in the defensive zone and more time in the offensive zone. The team has been tangibly successful in this regard. Five-on-five play, as well as shots for and against have improved substantially.

So why do they continue to struggle offensively? The easy answer could be the loss of Andrei Markov. However, a more in-depth answer could lie in the team's shooting percentage. Montreal is spending more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and they usually out-shoot their opponents. Yet, they still aren't scoring goals. Statistics tell us that they either aren't getting quality shots, or the players taking those shots aren't getting the job done.








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Friday, January 28, 2011

Team and Player Averages Through Twelve Games

The team average grade is 64% through 12 games.


Highest average grade is 69, while the lowest comes in at 59. However, the range for defensemen is much tighter, as it runs from a low of 62 to a high of 69.


Using the system, Brian Gionta could be classified as the team's best forchecker. He has the most offensive puck-battles won. The dimunitive winger has won 81 of 125 OZPB's; for a success rate of 65% . If we look at which players have the best success rate, the top player is another small player; rookie David Desharnais has the top succes rate at 72%. Among defensemen the top success rate goes to Roman Hamrlik (72%), while the lowest is Hal Gill(48%). The team average is 62%.


On the negative side of the spectrum we see PK. Subban leading with 35 defensive-zone giveaways, and Tomas Plekanec with 23 neutral-zone giveaways. Subban also needs to improve his ability to get the puck through to the net when taking a shot from the point. Only James Wisniewski (43) has had more point shots blocked than PK's 44; point shots blocked on the powerplay are huge momentum killers.


Plekanec seems to be the best player to have carrying the puck into the offensive zone. Number 14 has carried the puck into the offensive zone successfully 77 of 94 times; for a success rate of 82 %. PK Subban's 19 successful skate-ins are tops among defensemen.


Once they have possession through the neutral zone, the Habs usually make the right puck-decision. They are successful 83% of the time skating the puck into the offensive zone. That said, dumping it in seems to be the best percentage play, as this choice has a success rate of 85%.


Understandably, the leaders for defensive-zone puck-battles won are defensemen. PK Subban leads the team with 150 DZPBW, followed by Hal Gill (121) and Wisniewski (113). Percentage-wise the leader is a forward, as winger Travis Moen has won 79% of his defensive zone puck battles.


Jeff Halpern has come as advertised. He seems to be the right player to have taking defensive-zone faceoffs, as he's won 12 of 20; for a success rate of 60%. Interestingly, Halpern's success rate drops to 20% in the offensive zone. Scott Gomez leads the team in this department. Having won 35 of 58 offensive zone faceoffs; for a success rate of 60%.


The results get even more interesting when we look at special team faceoffs. Gomez leads with a success rate of 60% for defensive-zone shorthanded faceoff percentage, with Tom Pyatt's 60% success rate a close second.


Offensive-zone powerplay faceoff results seem to fit the general perception better. Plekanec has won 19 of 27, for a success rate of 70%, while Gomez has won 17 of 28 for a rate of 61%. Rookie Desharnais hasn't had much success with offensive zone powerplay faceoffs, winning only 2 of 6 (33%).



 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 32 44 45 46 52 53 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94 31
TEAM TOT



OZPBW 33 71 39 70 27 40 81 46 41 2 61 79 3 57 68 6 77 34 16 53 55 22 0 OZPBW 981



OZPBL 18 62 25 50 18 26 44 23 16 1 38 37 5 40 27 6 45 25 17 29 31 15 0 OZPBL 598



SKI + 3 69 20 77 11 6 37 23 3 0 31 17 3 34 25 1 31 3 1 19 17 6 0 SKI + 437



SKI- 0 16 1 17 1 6 10 3 4 0 8 5 0 7 5 0 6 1 0 3 1 0 0 SKI- 94



DI+ 32 30 14 44 27 25 27 37 26 1 23 31 9 11 24 6 38 20 32 52 18 12 3 DI+ 542



DI- 0 6 4 8 1 6 6 6 6 0 7 3 1 2 3 0 7 3 9 10 5 3 0 DI- 96



DZPBW 75 40 17 48 32 113 47 41 82 10 36 32 6 13 24 9 28 82 121 150 28 15 1 DZPBW 1050



DZPBL 43 30 6 26 14 47 18 11 37 4 13 13 8 11 12 3 20 33 41 55 11 15 0 DZPBL 471



NZPBW 10 6 3 5 6 3 8 6 11 0 10 4 3 9 9 1 11 5 3 4 11 2 0 NZPBW 130



NZPBL 9 9 2 6 3 6 4 8 5 0 6 1 4 1 9 0 6 6 6 1 3 4 0 NZPBL 99



DZTA 26 2 4 10 6 10 1 2 22 1 1 9 1 2 4 1 2 9 20 11 4 2 0 DZTA 150



DZGA 29 9 7 19 5 26 9 6 17 2 12 3 1 6 5 1 6 25 27 35 5 2 18 DZGA 275



NZTA 13 5 6 8 7 13 6 6 12 1 6 3 0 3 6 0 6 8 20 8 2 3 0 NZTA 142



NZGA 4 9 7 23 4 13 12 12 12 1 16 21 0 13 13 2 19 6 12 16 3 5 0 NZGA 223



DZFOW 0 16 1 26 12 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 9 3 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 DZFOW 79



DZFOL 0 17 1 22 8 0 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 12 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 DZFOL 72



DZPKFOW 0 5 0 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 DZPKFOW 34



DZPKFOL 0 3 0 19 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 DZPKFOL 32



OZPPFOW 0 17 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OZPPFOW 38



OZPPFOL 0 11 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 OZPPFOL 25



OZFOW 0 35 0 34 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 OZFOW 85



OZFOL 0 13 1 29 12 0 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 12 4 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 OZFOL 83



PS THRU 26 7 6 9 1 43 8 0 30 3 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 31 16 42 4 3 0 PS THRU 237



PS BL 9 4 3 11 1 25 4 1 12 0 4 2 0 1 1 0 2 14 6 22 5 0 0 PS BL 127

































WINS 218 303 110 369 135 253 219 161 227 18 171 177 27 131 181 28 194 192 229 339 145 74 4
3905



BATTLES 330 492 167 607 207 408 332 235 336 26 276 265 46 213 285 47 305 305 347 510 213 126 22
6100



GRADE 66 62 66 61 65 62 66 69 68 69 62 67 59 62 64 60 64 63 66 66 68 59 18 GRADE 64



PLAYER 6 11 13 14 15 20 21 32 44 45 46 52 53 57 58 63 67 68 75 76 81 94 31
TEAM GRADE



LEGEND




























OZPBW OFFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON















OZPBL OFFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST















SKI + SUCCESSFUL SKATING OF PUCK INTO OFFENSIVE ZONE








SKI- UNSUCCESSFUL SKATING OF PUCK INTO OFFENSIVE ZONE








DI+ SUCCESSFUL DUMP (BELOW HASH MARKS)








DI- UNSUCCESSFUL DUMP IN (NO PUCK POSSESSION)








DZPBW DEFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON








DZPBL DEFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST








NZPBW NEUTRAL ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON








NZPBL NEUTRAL ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST








DZTA DEFENSIVE ZONE TAKE AWAY








DZGA DEFENSIVE ZONE GIVE AWAY








NZTA NEUTRAL ZONE TAKE AWAY








NZGA NEUTRAL ZONE GIVE AWAY








DZFOW DEFENSIVE ZONE FACE OFF WON








DZFOL DEFENSIVE ZONE FACE OFF LOST








DZPKFOW DEFENSIVE ZONE PENALTY KILL FACEOFF WON








DZPKFOL DEFENSIVE ZONE PENALTY KILL FACE OFF LOST








OZPPFOW OFFENSIVE ZONE POWERPLAY FACEOFF WON








OZPPFOL OFFENSIVE ZONE POWERPLAY FACEOFF LOST








OZFOW OFFENSIVE ZONE EVEN STRENGTH FACEOFF WON








OZFOL OFFENSIVE ZONE EVEN STRENGTH FACEOFF LOST








PS THRU POINT SHOT THROUGH PAST SHOT BLOCKING FORWARD








PS BL POINT SHOT BLOCKED BY SHOT BLOCKING FORWARD OR DEFENSEMAN








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