- What is Boucher Scouting?
- GOALIE REPORTS
- HABS PROSPECTS
- HABS 2011-12
- HABS 2010-11
- 2012 DRAFT
- ARMSTRONG 2012-13
- BEAULIEU (AHL)
- BOURNIVAL (AHL)
- BOURQUE 2012-13
- GALCHENYUK 2012-13
- GALLAGHER 2012-13
- GIONTA 2012-13
- GORGES 2012-13
- LEBLANC 2011-12
- LEBLANC (AHL)
- NATTINEN (AHL)
- PLEKANEC 2012-13
- PRUST 2012-13
- RYDER 2012-13
- QUAILER (AHL)
- TINORDI (AHL)
Monday, January 31, 2011
Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Overall Risk/Reward Ratings
Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Offensive-zone Risk/Reward Ratings
Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Neutral-zone Risk/Reward Ratings
Montreal Candiens 2011 Playoff Risk/Reward Ratings
Montreal Canadiens 2010-11 Raw Data
Sunday, January 30, 2011
The past tells us, for the most part, everything we need to know about the future. If we take information we already have, extrapolate it, then dilute it using the law of averages, we can usually get an idea of future results.
With the plethora of statistics currently available, this exercise can translate to the game of hockey. We can take year-to-date statistics in order to predict the Montreal Canadiens post-all star results. We can then use these statistics, and their extrapolated results to determine possible team-needs moving forward.
Home and Away Record
Coming into the all star break the Habs' home record of 16-6-4 was fourth-best in the league. Countering this is their road record of 11-12-1; placing them 22nd among all NHL teams. Montreal has 15 home games left, while they will be playing away from the Bell Centre 17 more times.
If we take their record to-date and carry it through until the end of the season the team could go 9-3-2 at home down the stretch, while carrying a road record of 8-9 down the stretch. This logic would see the team post a 17-12-3 record to finish the year 44-30-8; good enough for 96 points.
Record Against Divisional Opponents
Another possibility is to use the team's record against specific divisions to predetermine possible results. To-date the Habs have had success against opponents from the North-East (11-3-1) and Pacific Divisions (3-1-1), but have struggled against the South-East (3-4-2) and Central (0-3-0) division teams. Their record against Atlantic (8-6) and Northwest (2-1-1) division squads simply help maintain the team's average. Going forward, Montreal will play South-East division teams 11 times; Atlantic teams 6 times; North-East teams 9 times; Northwest teams 3 times; and Central division teams 3 times.
If we take this example forward the team could go 16-13-3 down the stretch. This would see them finish the season with a 43-31-8 record; good enough for 94 points.
As we can see both exercises yielded similar results. Using these numbers to indicate whether or not the Canadiens will make the play-offs, we need to look at past-years' results; Ninety-four points have been good enough to make the play-offs every year since the lockout.
Current Team Statistics
Current player and team statistics can also help to establish possible reasons for current results, while enabling team management to determine needs moving forward. Montreal continues to be offensively challenged. The Habs 130 goals scored to-date place them 22nd in the league for goals-scored-per-game. Defensively, the team has been solid; with a goals-against-average good enough for 6th in the league.
While their five-on-five play has improved since last season, it is still only good enough for 13th in the league. The trend showing an offensively-challenged team continues through special teams. The power-play sits 11th, while the 6th place penalty-killing matches the team's overall defensive placement. The Canadiens also need to improve their face-off percentage; they are currently 18th in the league. Halpern's shoulder problems could really hurt the team going forward, as his work in the circle has degraded since the injury.
Breaking Down the Offence
Statistics for shots taken and shots allowed yielded surprising results. Counter to previously mentioned offensive/ defensive results, Montreal has taken the sixth-most shots on net, while allowing the thirteenth-most shots against. Taking this metric forward we see the team's shooting percentage averages out to 7.9%. For comparison sake, the leagues' top-30 shooting-percentage leaders range from 15.5% to 22.6 %. Montreal's top marksman (10 goals or more) is Benoit Pouliot (14.4%). Among top-6 forwards Tomas Plekanec leads with a shooting percentage of 11.2%. Brian Gionta is struggling here; the team captain is beating goalies with only 8.3% of his shots.
The Canadiens came into this season looking to improve on specific aspects of their game. Their main focus going into camp was to establish a system that would allow them to spend less time in the defensive zone and more time in the offensive zone. The team has been tangibly successful in this regard. Five-on-five play, as well as shots for and against have improved substantially.
So why do they continue to struggle offensively? The easy answer could be the loss of Andrei Markov. However, a more in-depth answer could lie in the team's shooting percentage. Montreal is spending more time in the offensive zone than the defensive zone, and they usually out-shoot their opponents. Yet, they still aren't scoring goals. Statistics tell us that they either aren't getting quality shots, or the players taking those shots aren't getting the job done.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Highest average grade is 69, while the lowest comes in at 59. However, the range for defensemen is much tighter, as it runs from a low of 62 to a high of 69.
Using the system, Brian Gionta could be classified as the team's best forchecker. He has the most offensive puck-battles won. The dimunitive winger has won 81 of 125 OZPB's; for a success rate of 65% . If we look at which players have the best success rate, the top player is another small player; rookie David Desharnais has the top succes rate at 72%. Among defensemen the top success rate goes to Roman Hamrlik (72%), while the lowest is Hal Gill(48%). The team average is 62%.
On the negative side of the spectrum we see PK. Subban leading with 35 defensive-zone giveaways, and Tomas Plekanec with 23 neutral-zone giveaways. Subban also needs to improve his ability to get the puck through to the net when taking a shot from the point. Only James Wisniewski (43) has had more point shots blocked than PK's 44; point shots blocked on the powerplay are huge momentum killers.
Plekanec seems to be the best player to have carrying the puck into the offensive zone. Number 14 has carried the puck into the offensive zone successfully 77 of 94 times; for a success rate of 82 %. PK Subban's 19 successful skate-ins are tops among defensemen.
Once they have possession through the neutral zone, the Habs usually make the right puck-decision. They are successful 83% of the time skating the puck into the offensive zone. That said, dumping it in seems to be the best percentage play, as this choice has a success rate of 85%.
Understandably, the leaders for defensive-zone puck-battles won are defensemen. PK Subban leads the team with 150 DZPBW, followed by Hal Gill (121) and Wisniewski (113). Percentage-wise the leader is a forward, as winger Travis Moen has won 79% of his defensive zone puck battles.
Jeff Halpern has come as advertised. He seems to be the right player to have taking defensive-zone faceoffs, as he's won 12 of 20; for a success rate of 60%. Interestingly, Halpern's success rate drops to 20% in the offensive zone. Scott Gomez leads the team in this department. Having won 35 of 58 offensive zone faceoffs; for a success rate of 60%.
The results get even more interesting when we look at special team faceoffs. Gomez leads with a success rate of 60% for defensive-zone shorthanded faceoff percentage, with Tom Pyatt's 60% success rate a close second.
Offensive-zone powerplay faceoff results seem to fit the general perception better. Plekanec has won 19 of 27, for a success rate of 70%, while Gomez has won 17 of 28 for a rate of 61%. Rookie Desharnais hasn't had much success with offensive zone powerplay faceoffs, winning only 2 of 6 (33%).
|SKI +||3||69||20||77||11||6||37||23||3||0||31||17||3||34||25||1||31||3||1||19||17||6||0||SKI +||437|
|PS THRU||26||7||6||9||1||43||8||0||30||3||3||0||0||0||3||1||1||31||16||42||4||3||0||PS THRU||237|
|PS BL||9||4||3||11||1||25||4||1||12||0||4||2||0||1||1||0||2||14||6||22||5||0||0||PS BL||127|
|OZPBW||OFFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON|
|OZPBL||OFFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST|
|SKI +||SUCCESSFUL SKATING OF PUCK INTO OFFENSIVE ZONE|
|SKI-||UNSUCCESSFUL SKATING OF PUCK INTO OFFENSIVE ZONE|
|DI+||SUCCESSFUL DUMP (BELOW HASH MARKS)|
|DI-||UNSUCCESSFUL DUMP IN (NO PUCK POSSESSION)|
|DZPBW||DEFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON|
|DZPBL||DEFENSIVE ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST|
|NZPBW||NEUTRAL ZONE PUCK BATTLE WON|
|NZPBL||NEUTRAL ZONE PUCK BATTLE LOST|
|DZTA||DEFENSIVE ZONE TAKE AWAY|
|DZGA||DEFENSIVE ZONE GIVE AWAY|
|NZTA||NEUTRAL ZONE TAKE AWAY|
|NZGA||NEUTRAL ZONE GIVE AWAY|
|DZFOW||DEFENSIVE ZONE FACE OFF WON|
|DZFOL||DEFENSIVE ZONE FACE OFF LOST|
|DZPKFOW||DEFENSIVE ZONE PENALTY KILL FACEOFF WON|
|DZPKFOL||DEFENSIVE ZONE PENALTY KILL FACE OFF LOST|
|OZPPFOW||OFFENSIVE ZONE POWERPLAY FACEOFF WON|
|OZPPFOL||OFFENSIVE ZONE POWERPLAY FACEOFF LOST|
|OZFOW||OFFENSIVE ZONE EVEN STRENGTH FACEOFF WON|
|OZFOL||OFFENSIVE ZONE EVEN STRENGTH FACEOFF LOST|
|PS THRU||POINT SHOT THROUGH PAST SHOT BLOCKING FORWARD|
|PS BL||POINT SHOT BLOCKED BY SHOT BLOCKING FORWARD OR DEFENSEMAN|