Tuesday, June 28, 2011

The Numbers Behind Pouliot's and Pyatt's Freedom

Restricted Free Agents Benoit Pouliot and Tom Pyatt not qualified by Habs' brass

By not tendering qualifying offers to Benoit Pouliot and Tom Pyatt the Montreal Canadiens handed the two young forwards their proverbial hockey-freedom. The likely reason behind the two decisions were two-fold. Both players were passed on the depth chart by other young forwards, and the decision (particularly in the Pouliot case) freed up some cap-space; either for the future long-term signings of PK Subban and Carey Price, or a modest dip into the upcoming UFA pool.

As Alain Vigneault once explained in reference to Darcy Tucker, neither player sat comfortably in their chair. Pouliot was supposed to be a player who produced offense, while Pyatt was supposed to play strong minutes in the defensive-zone.

Why didn't they fit their chair?

Lets see what the numbers say.

Pouliot


Using multiple numerical values within my system we see that Pouliot just didn't put up numbers warranting a spot among the team's top-9 forwards. He ended the regular season with grade of 60; three percentage-points below the team average, and 20th among 27 teammates scouted.

His overall risk/reward rating of 0.47 was 0.17 points below the team-average, and 24th out of 27 players rated.

Pouliot was a player counted on to produce offense. But, his offensive-zone risk/reward rating ranked 22nd among all Montreal players. Pouliot's play in the defensive-zone didn't make up for his offensive-numbers, as his defensive-zone risk/reward rating placed him 21st among Habs players.

Number 57's playoffs numbers didn't help his cause. He finished last among his teammates in total grade (49), overall risk/reward (-0.16), and (incredibly enough) offensive-zone risk/reward (0.00). The negative number in overall risk/reward simply means that pouliot actually hurt the team (missed pass, lost puck-battle) more than he helped the team (won puck-battle, successful dump-in).


Pyatt

Pyatt was never a player meant to produce offense, so looking at his offensive-numbers would be counter-productive. Number 94's regular season grade of 61 ranked 17th among his scouted teammates, while his overall risk/reward rating (0.47) placed 25th out of 27 players

His defensive-zone risk/reward rating (0.05) was particularly disappointing, as it was only good enough for 21st place, while also being well below average.

Pyatt's defensive numbers in the playoffs severely hurt his cause, as he ended the playoffs with the lowest defensive-zone risk/reward rating (-0.01) among all players scouted.

Be free! Be free young men!




*Follow the "Quick Links" at the top-left of the page for all the Habs numbers from last season*

Monday, June 27, 2011

Habs Prospect Olivier Archambault One-game Scouting Report

Archambault's speed key to decent overall risk/reward rating

Olivier Archambault was chosen by the Montreal Canadiens during the fourth round of the 2011 NHL entry draft. The 5'11", 178 lbs winger was the 108th player chosen overall. The left-handed shooter played right wing during the game scouted. He played last season with Val d'Or of the QMJHL, but was recently traded to the Drummondville Voltigeurs; where he is set to play next season.

*Numbers from game 4 of Val d'Or's playoff series against the Quebec Remparts (March 30th, 2011)*


Overall Grade

Archambault posted a slightly below-average grade of 62 during the game scouted. He had an even plus/minus to go along with 1 goal, and 3 shots on net.


10
WINS 51 WINS
EVENTS 82 EVENTS
GRADE 62 GRADE
PLAYER 10


Overall Risk/Reward

Archambault's overall risk/reward rating of 1.24 would rank 24th when compared to 41 other 2011 draft-eligible prospects scouted this past season.  Much of Archambault's grade is the product of his speed. He won 9 of 12 offensive-zone puck battles, but the vast majority were won because he beat opposing players to loose pucks. He also managed the bulk of his positive marks by successfully skating the puck into the offensive-zone.


10
MINUTES 17 MINUTES
POS/MIN 3.00 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 1.76 NEG/MIN

10
EVENTS/ MIN 4.76 EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD 1.24 RISK/REWARD

10


Offensive-zone Risk/Reward

Despite winning many of his puck battles in the offensive-zone, Archambault had trouble creating offense after gaining possession of the puck. He completed only 44% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts, and just 25% of his attempts to beat opposing defenders 1on1 (deaks) in the o-zone.


10
MINUTES 15 MINUTES
POS/MIN 1.40 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 1.07 NEG/MIN

10
EVENTS/ MIN 2.47 EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD 0.33 RISK/REWARD

10


Defensive-zone Risk/Reward

Archambault tended to fly the defensive-zone early, and as such had few total events in the defensive-zone. That said, his wheels did allow him to cover up for multiple bad-pinches by his defensive-teammates. All-in-all his stick just doesn't seem to be very strong, as he was only able to win 3 of 7 defensive-zone puck-battles; all 3 wins were the product of his speed, not his stick.


10
MINUTES 15 MINUTES
POS/MIN 0.60 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 0.40 NEG/MIN

10
EVENTS/ MIN 1.00 EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD 0.20 RISK/REWARD

10


Neutral-zone Risk/Reward

Archambault's work in the neutral-zone carried his grade. He led many offensive-rushes, and as such was able to successfully carry the puck into the offensive-zone 8 times. His speed through the n-zone made up for his inability to win 1on1 puck-battles, as he won only 3 of 9 neutral-zone puck battles.



10
MINUTES 15 MINUTES
POS/MIN 1.07 POS/MIN
NEG/MIN 0.53 NEG/MIN

10
EV/ MIN 1.60 EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD 0.53 RISK/REWARD

10


Top Attributes

-Speed and puck-carrying ability in open-ice
-puck decisions through neutral-zone

Top concerns
-weak stick
-bad puck-decisions in offensive-zone
-lack of engagement in defensive-zone

Raw Data


10
OZPBW 9 OZPBW
OZPBL 3 OZPBL
OZPASS+ 4 OZPASS+
OZPASS- 5 OZPASS-
OZDEAK+ 2 OZDEAK+
OZDEAK- 6 OZDEAK-
SKI + 8 SKI +
SKI- 1 SKI-
DI+ 2 DI+
DI-
DI-
OZTA 2 OZTA

10
DZPBW 3 DZPBW
DZPBL 4 DZPBL
DZPASS+ 2 DZPASS+
DZPASS- 1 DZPASS-
DZDEAK+
DZDEAK+
DZDEAK- 1 DZDEAK-
PK DUMP+
PK DUMP+
PK DUMP-
PK DUMP-
DZTA 2 DZTA
DZ-BL-SHOT
DZ-BL-SHOT
DZ-BL-PASS 2 DZ-BL-PASS

10
NZPBW 3 NZPBW
NZPBL 6 NZPBL
NZPASS+ 1 NZPASS+
NZPASS-
NZPASS-
NZDEAK+ 1 NZDEAK+
NZDEAK- 1 NZDEAK-
NZTA 1 NZTA

10
DZFOW
DZFOW
DZFOL
DZFOL
DZPKFOW
DZPKFOW
DZPKFOL 1 DZPKFOL
OZPPFOW
OZPPFOW
OZPPFOL
OZPPFOL
OZFOW
OZFOW
OZFOL
OZFOL
NZFOW
NZFOW
NZFOL
NZFOL

10
PS THRU 4 PS THRU
OZ PS BL 2 OZ PS BL
POINTS X2 2 POINTS X2
+/-
+/-
SHOTS 3 SHOTS

10
WINS 51 WINS
EVENTS 82 EVENTS
GRADE 62 GRADE
PLAYER 10

Sunday, June 19, 2011

2011 NHL DRAFT: Top Defensive-Zone Puck-Battle Winning-Percentage Among Scouted D-Men

Stuart Percy posts the top defensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage

Defensive-zone puck-battles are a key play for any team. A team with a group of defensemen who can win the majority of these plays will undoubtedly be successful keeping the opposition off the score sheet.

Defensive-zone puck-battles can be won with raw physical strength, but most are won with a good stick. A good stick is the main ingredient in any successful defenseman. Whether their name is Nicklas Lidstrom or Andrei Markov, a close eye on how they actually win most of their defensive-zone puck-battles will justify this point.

A player is credited with a successful defensive-zone puck-battle when one of the following events occur:
-Wall or open-ice 1on1 puck-battle is won
-Race to loose puck is won
-Player breaks up a rush
-Player lifts another player's stick in the slot to prevent a scoring chance.

A player is credited with an unsuccessful defensive-zone puck-battle when one of the following events occur:
-Wall or open-ice 1on1 puck-battle is lost
-Race to loose puck is lost
-Pass in defensive-zone goes through defenseman (under stick or between legs)
-Unable to handle pass in defensive-zone
-Gets beat 1on1 by onrushing opposition player


Ranking for Scouted defensemen

Players with high percentages within this metric include Stuart Percy, Adam Clendening, Jonas Brodin and Oscar Klefbom.

Stuart Percy has the top defensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage (79%) among draft-eligible defensemen scouted. Percy has 2 of the top 5 percentages (79%, 70%), and notched these marks while playing against high-end competition in the Memorial Cup.

Adam Clendening has two d-zone puck-battle winning-percentages (78%, 66%) among the top-6 calculated. Clendening's numbers are particularly impressive because he posted them while playing in the NCAA against older players.

Highly-ranked Swedish defensemen Jonas Brodin (77%) and Oscar Klefbom (75%) round out the top-4. Brodin and Klefbom posted their numbers during the Under-18 final against the US; where they absolutely dominated 1on1 puck-battles against competition their own age.


PLAYER DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLES WINNING PERCENTAGE PLAYER
STUART PERCY 79 STUART PERCY
ADAM CLENDENING 78 ADAM CLENDENING
JONAS BRODIN 77 JONAS BRODIN
OSCAR KLEFBOM 75 OSCAR KLEFBOM
STUART PERCY 70 STUART PERCY
ADAM CLENDENING 66 ADAM CLENDENING
DYLAN DEMELO 58 DYLAN DEMELO
ROBBIE RUSSO 58 ROBBIE RUSSO
GUILLAUME CLOUTIER 58 GUILLAUME CLOUTIER
KEEVIN CUTTING 57 KEEVIN CUTTING
DYLAN DEMELO 57 DYLAN DEMELO
MICHAEL PALIOTTA 57 MICHAEL PALIOTTA
GABRIEL BOURRET 55 GABRIEL BOURRET
RASMUS BENGTSSON 55 RASMUS BENGTSSON
NATHAN BEAULIEU 52 NATHAN BEAULIEU
STUART PERCY 52 STUART PERCY
KEEVIN CUTTING 44 KEEVIN CUTTING
NATHAN BEAULIEU 40 NATHAN BEAULIEU
CONNOR MURPHY 38 CONNOR MURPHY
JAGGER DIRK 36 JAGGER DIRK
KARL JOHANSSON 36 KARL JOHANSSON
GABRIEL BOURRET 33 GABRIEL BOURRET



Friday, June 17, 2011

2011 DRAFT: Stuart Percy: A Better Player Than His Draft-Ranking Indicates

Mississauga Ice Dog Stuart Percy (#5) is the 53rd ranked North American skater for the upcoming draft. The 6'1", 195 lbs defenseman has turned heads recently (including my own). He has an excellent stick, strong positioning, and makes an incredibly consistent first-pass. He makes things look easy, and has played much better hockey than his draft-ranking would indicate.

Three-Game Average Grade

Percy notched 2 of the top-3 one-game grades of any prospect scouted this season. His three-game average grade would in fact, place fifth when compared with  any other player's one-game grade. The only defensemen with a one-game grade that would better Percy's three-game grade is teammate, and 121st ranked North American skater Dylan Demelo and the 3rd-ranked European skater Jonas Brodin.



AVERAGE GRADE
WINS 230
BATTLES 292
GRADE 79

AVERAGE GRADE


Three-Game Risk/Reward Rating

Through 3 scouted games, Percy Notched 2 of the top-5 one-game grades of any scouted prospect. His three-game overall-rating of 2.21 would rank 7th when compared to any other player's one-game grade.


AVERAGE GRADE
POS 230
NEG 62

AVERAGE GRADE
MINUTES 76
POS/MIN 3.03
NEG/MIN 0.82

AVERAGE GRADE
EVENTS/ MIN 3.84
RISK/REWARD 2.21

AVERAGE GRADE


Three-Game Offensive-Zone Risk/Reward Rating

Offensive-zone risk/reward ratings for defensemen are usually much lower than they are for forwards. That said, Percy posted the top one-game offensive-zone risk/reward rating (1.19) of any player scouted. His three-game average rating would rank 12th among any other player's one-game rating, and 4th among any other defenseman's one-game offensive-zone risk/reward rating.



AVERAGE GRAE
OZ POS 59
OZ NEG 15

AVERAGE GRADE
MINUTES 76
POS/MIN 0.78
NEG/MIN 0.20

AVERAGE GRADE
EVENTS/ MIN 0.97
RISK/REWARD 0.58

AVERAGE GRADE


Three-game Defensive-Zone Risk/Reward Rating

Percy posted the second-best one-game defensive-zone risk/reward rating of all prospects scouted. Two of his one-game d-zone ratings are among the top-5 ever scouted, while his three-game average defensive-zone risk/reward rating would rank sixth when compared with any other player's one-game rating.


AVERAGE GRADE
DZ POS 140
DZ NEG 45

AVERAGE GRADE
MINUTES 76
POS/MIN 1.84
NEG/MIN 0.59

AVERAGE GRADE
EVENTS/ MIN 2.43
RISK/REWARD 1.25

AVERAGE GRADE


Stuart Percy 3-Game Raw Data and Totals


5 5 5
TM TOT
OZPBW 6 16 1 OZPBW 23
OZPBL 5
1 OZPBL 6
OZPASS+ 6 15 3 OZPASS+ 24
OZPASS- 2 5
OZPASS- 7
OZDEAK+
2
OZDEAK+ 2
OZDEAK-


OZDEAK- 0
SKI +


SKI + 0
SKI-


SKI- 0
DI+ 2 1 1 DI+ 4
DI- 1
1 DI- 2
OZTA


OZTA 0

5 5 5
TM TOT
DZPBW 17 15 16 DZPBW 48
DZPBL 16 4 7 DZPBL 27
DZPASS+ 22 18 27 DZPASS+ 67
DZPASS- 8 4 4 DZPASS- 16
DZDEAK+ 1 1 1 DZDEAK+ 3
DZDEAK-

1 DZDEAK- 1
PK DUMP+
1 4 PK DUMP+ 5
PK DUMP-
1
PK DUMP- 1
DZTA 3 2 1 DZTA 6
DZ-BL-SHOT 4 3 1 DZ-BL-SHOT 8
DZ-BL-PASS 2
1 DZ-BL-PASS 3

5 5 5
TM TOT
NZPBW 1 1 2 NZPBW 4
NZPBL


NZPBL 0
NZPASS+ 6 3 4 NZPASS+ 13
NZPASS- 1 1 NZPASS- 2
NZDEAK+ 1 2
NZDEAK+ 3
NZDEAK-


NZDEAK- 0
NZTA

1 NZTA 1

5 5 5
TM TOT
DZFOW


DZFOW 0
DZFOL


DZFOL 0
DZPKFOW


DZPKFOW 0
DZPKFOL


DZPKFOL 0
OZPPFOW


OZPPFOW 0
OZPPFOL


OZPPFOL 0
OZFOW


OZFOW 0
OZFOL


OZFOL 0
NZFOW


NZFOW 0
NZFOL


NZFOL 0

5 5 5
TM TOT
PS THRU 3 4 3 PS THRU 10
OZ PS BL 1 1
OZ PS BL 2
POINTS X2

4 POINTS X2 4
+/-

1 +/- 1
SHOTS 3 2 1 SHOTS 6

5 5 5
AVG. GR.
WINS 77 85 68 WINS 230
BATTLES 110 100 82 BATTLES 292
GRADE 70 85 83 GRADE 79
PLAYER 5 5 5
AVG. GR.