Monday, November 7, 2011

Habs Players' Puck-Battle Winning Percentages by Zone

Weber wins the majority of his puck-battles


Puck possession has become our main focus here at Boucher Scouting. Our original and most basic event involves puck-battles. We define puck-battles as any situation where a player is in a realistic position to either acquire puck possession for himself, or remove puck possession from an opposing player. These puck-battles can either take place along the boards, at centre-ice, or in front of the net.

Offensive-zone

Among Canadiens forwards with substantial events, Brian Gionta has the best puck-battle winning percentage. Gionta has won 56% of his offensive-zone puck-battles; three percentage points better than any other forward. Despite his size, Gionta also led the team in puck-battle winning percentage during last year's playoffs, and regular season. Among defensemen with substantial events, Josh Gorges has the top offensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage. Gorges high success-rate speaks volumes not only about his strong stick, but also about his impressive decision-making.

Among forwards currently on the roster, Tomas Plekanec (38%) and Mike Cammalleri (40%) have the lowest offensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage. The defensemen with the lowest o-zone success-rates are Hal Gill and Raphael Diaz.


Defensive-zone

Among defensemen, Yannick Weber has the top defensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage. Weber's success-rate of 65% is 5 percentage points above any other player. Gorges has the second-best defensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage. The top success-rates for forwards belong to Max Pacioretty and Mathieu Darche. Both players win just under 58% of their d-zone puck-battles.

Erik Cole and David Desharnais are the two players with the lowest defensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage. Among defensemen, the lowest success-rate belongs to PK Subban. 


Neutral-zone

Among defensemen, Weber has the top winning percentage. Number 68 wins 75% of his neutral-zone puck-battles. Two percentage points better than Hal Gill, and 5 percentage-points better than PK Subban. The forward group is led by Mike Cammalleri, David Desharnais and Max Pacioretty, as all 3 players have success-rates north of 60%.

Josh Gorges neutral-zone puck-battle winning percentage is at a surprisingly low 38%. Other players with low n-zone success-rates are Spacek, Plekanec, Moen and Diaz.


What is this? 
I track each and every play during a game. The main focus being on puck-possession. Any play by a player that maintains or acquires puck-possession is deemed a positive-event, while any play that fails to acquire, or loses puck-possession is considered a negative-event. I input the result into a database, allowing me to track players' successes or failures. I average approximately 1100 points of data per-game (when covering an entire team), or about 70 points of data per-player. Most players average just over 3 events per minute of ice-time. Whether it's an incomplete or complete pass-attempt, a won or lost race to a loose puck, a won or lost puck-battle, etc.; each result is tracked for each player. The results are also tracked by zone (offensive/defensive/neutral) and by situation (even-strength/powerplay/short-handed) and inputted into the database as such. This allows us to track how each player performs in each zone, and in each manpower situation.  Click the FAQ tab above for further information.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Habs vs. Rangers 5-3 loss November 5, 2011

The Montreal Canadiens lost to the New York Rangers 5-3 Saturday night, as a lack of discipline and some questionable calls hurt the Habs ability to establish any rhythm in the game.


What is this? 
I track each and every play during a game. The main focus being on puck-possession. Any play by a player that maintains or acquires puck-possession is deemed a positive-event, while any play that fails to acquire, or loses puck-possession is considered a negative-event. I input the result into a database, allowing me to track players' successes or failures. I average approximately 1100 points of data per-game (when covering an entire team), or about 70 points of data per-player. Most players average just over 3 events per minute of ice-time. Whether it's an incomplete or complete pass-attempt, a won or lost race to a loose puck, a won or lost puck-battle, etc.; each result is tracked for each player. The results are also tracked by zone (offensive/defensive/neutral) and by situation (even-strength/powerplay/short-handed) and inputted into the database as such. This allows us to track how each player performs in each zone, and in each manpower situation.  Click the FAQ tab above for further information.





Only 6 of 18 skaters had risk/reward ratings above their season average. Erik Cole continued his streak of solid grades with a team-high 80. Other players with grades above 70 include Jaroslav Spacek, Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta, Josh Gorges, Max Pacioretty, Yannick Weber, and PK Subban.

Excluding Petteri Nokelainen, who left the game early, Mathieu Darche had the game's lowest grade. This is the second-game in a row where Darche has posted the lowest grade.

OVERALL RAW DATA

----------------------------





Five players had overall risk/reward ratings above their season average. Subban had the top risk/reward thanks to some some solid work in all 3 zones. Other players with risk/reward ratings above 2.00 include Cole and Plekanec. Plekanec posted his lowest rating of the season during Friday's game in Ottawa.

Among players with a statistically-sound amount of ice time, Mathieu Darche had the lowest overall risk/reward. Other players with low ratings include Cammalleri, Moen and Kostitsyn.

OVERALL RAW DATA

-------------------------




Six players had EVEN-STRENGTH risk/reward ratings above their season average. Cole had the top ES rating, followed by Subban, Spacek and Eller. Travis Moen had the lowest EVEN-STRENGTH risk/reward rating. Other players with low ES ratings include Kostitsyn, Desharnais and Darche.

EVEN-STRENGTH RAW DATA

--------------------------




Five players had EVEN-STRENGTH offensive-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. Cole had the top o-zone rating at even-strength, followed by Weber, Gorges and Gionta. Cole recovered 3 loose-pucks, and beat opposition players 4 times 1on1 (deak). Gionta produced one of his best o-zone passing success-rates this season, completing 4 of 5 attempted passes.

Mike Cammalleri, Kostitsyn and Gill all had EVEN-STRENGTH offensive-zone risk/reward ratings in the negative. This indicates that all 3 players made more plays that gave up puck-possession, than plays that acquired or maintained puck-possession while in the offensive-zone. Cammalleri lost all 4 o-zone puck-battles he engaged in, while Kostitsyn completed only 2 of 8 offensive-zone pass-attempts.

EVEN-STRENGTH RAW DATA

------------------------





Eight players had EVEN-STRENGTH defensive-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. Three of those players were defensemen. Jaroslav Spacek had the top d-zone rating, followed by Eller and Subban. Spacek won 6 of 8 d-zone puck-battles, and completed 15 of 22 d-zone passes. Subban completed 19 of 23 d-zone passes, while Eller was successful with all 8 of his d-zone pass-attempts.

Travis Moen had the lowest EVEN-STRENGTH defensive-zone risk/reward rating, followed by Desharnais. Desharnais uncharacteristically completed only 33 % of his d-zone pass-attempts.

EVEN-STRENGTH RAW DATA

------------------------




Six players had EVEN-STRENGTH neutral-zone risk/reward ratings above their season average. Subban, Cole and Plekanec had the top neutral-zone risk/reward ratings. Cole recovered 4 loose-pucks in the neutral-zone, while both Plekanec and Subban completed all of their attempted n-zone passes.

Darche and Desharnais both had n-zone risk/reward ratings in the negative. Darche had few n-zone events; he failed with his only attempted dump-in, and wasn't able to cleanly receive 2 passes. Desharnais completed only 1 of 3 n-zone passes.

EVEN-STRENGTH RAW DATA

-----------------------------




Five players had SHORT-HANDED risk/reward ratings above their season average. The Habs spent a large portion of the game short-handed. Even more incredible is the fact that Josh Gorges played over 10 minutes on the ice while Montreal was down at least one man. Spacek had the top short-handed rating, while Plekanec was a close second. Spacek blocked 2 passes and completed 3 dump-outs, while Plekanec completed 3 dump-outs and blocked 3 passes.

Darche was the only player with a negative short-handed risk/reward rating. But, he played only 20 seconds short-handed.

SHORT-HANDED RAW DATA

----------------------------




Nine players had powerplay risk/reward ratings above their season average. Subban had the top rating, followed by Plekanec and Cammalleri. Cole had the lowest PP rating, as he lost his only PP puck-battle.

POWERPLAY RAW DATA

November 5, 2011: Habs vs. Rangers OVERALL raw data


6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
OZPBW 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 4 1 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 2 0 OZPBW 15
OZPBL 0 4 3 0 3 0 1 0 3 1 0 1 5 0 2 1 0 1 0 OZPBL 25
OZPRACW 1 3 8 0 6 1 2 1 3 4 0 4 10 2 4 2 7 3 0 OZPRACW 61
OZPRACL 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 OZPRACL 11
OZPASS+ 1 4 11 0 6 4 0 0 2 12 0 9 6 8 4 0 8 2 0 OZPASS+ 77
OZPASS- 0 3 9 0 1 0 0 0 6 1 0 2 6 0 2 2 1 2 0 OZPASS- 35
OZDEAK+ 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 4 0 1 1 0 OZDEAK+ 11
OZDEAK- 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 OZDEAK- 8
SKI + 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SKI + 2
SKI- 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 SKI- 4
DI+ 1 2 9 0 4 3 3 0 1 1 0 2 4 2 7 3 1 5 0 DI+ 48
DI- 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 DI- 8
BL-PASS+ 1 0 3 0 2 3 2 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 2 1 2 0 0 BL-PASS+ 21
BL-PASS- 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 BL-PASS- 8
POKE CHECK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 POKE CHECK 0
MISS PASS 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 MISS PASS 8

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
DZPBW 6 1 5 0 2 5 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 DZPBW 31
DZPBL 2 0 3 0 1 6 2 0 0 1 1 6 2 2 0 4 8 4 0 DZPBL 42
DZPRACW 5 5 7 0 5 8 3 0 3 3 2 3 5 6 4 4 9 3 0 DZPRACW 75
DZPRACL 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 DZPRACL 5
DZPASS+ 16 3 6 0 5 11 2 0 1 3 1 10 2 9 1 9 19 7 10 DZPASS+ 115
DZPASS- 7 1 5 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 1 4 1 4 0 2 4 0 1 DZPASS- 37
DZDEAK+ 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 3 0 DZDEAK+ 8
DZDEAK- 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 DZDEAK- 3
DUMP+ 3 4 4 0 4 3 2 0 1 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 1 DUMP+ 39
DUMP- 0 1 1 0 2 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 DUMP- 12
BL-SHOT+ 2 0 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 BL-SHOT+ 9
BL-SHOT- 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 1 0 1 BL-SHOT- 8
BL-PASS+ 4 0 5 0 3 2 1 0 0 3 0 2 0 3 0 2 3 2 4 BL-PASS+ 34
BL-PASS- 2 2 2 0 1 2 1 0 0 4 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 2 3 BL-PASS- 27
POKE CHECK 3 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 POKE CHECK 17
MISS PASS 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 MISS PASS 3
DZ COV - 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DZ COV - 1

6 13 14
21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
NZPBW 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 NZPBW 9
NZPBL 0 2 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 NZPBL 12
NZPRACW 3 2 5 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 5 2 3 1 0 NZPRACW 29
NZPRACL 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NZPRACL 5
NZPASS+ 3 4 5 0 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 5 4 0 1 1 7 0 0 NZPASS+ 35
NZPASS- 1 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 NZPASS- 15
NZDEAK+ 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 NZDEAK+ 8
NZDEAK- 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 NZDEAK- 3
BL-PASS+ 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 BL-PASS+ 7
BL-PASS- 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 BL-PASS- 4
POKE CHECK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 POKE CHECK 3
MISS PASS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 MISS PASS 4

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
SHOT THRU 0 2 3 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 6 4 5 0 5 0 0 SHOT THRU 30
SHOT MISSED 1 4 6 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 7 3 3 0 2 4 1 0 SHOT MISSED 36
POINTS X2 2 2 6
4


2


2





POINTS X2 18
+/- -1 -1

1 1 -1
-1 -2
-1
-3 -1

-1
+/- 0
SHOTS
3 1
3


1

1 7 3 4
5

SHOTS 0

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
WINS 51 39 86 0 51 51 19 1 25 32 5 46 57 40 44 34 80 40 16 WINS 702
EVENTS 69 71 118 0 66 73 34 2 46 51 10 75 82 57 55 52 106 58 22 EVENTS 1022
GRADE 74 55 73 0 77 70 56 50 54 63 50 61 70 70 80 65 75 69 73 GRADE 69
PLAYER 6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TEAM AVG






















RISK/REWARD





















6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
POS 50 35 79 0 43 50 20 1 23 34 5 46 48 40 41 34 75 41 16 POS 634
NEG 18 32 32 0 15 22 15 1 21 19 5 29 25 17 11 18 26 18 6 NEG 312
RATIO 2.78 1.09 2.47 .00 2.87 2.27 1.33 1.00 1.10 1.79 1.00 1.59 1.92 2.35 3.73 1.89 2.88 2.28 2.67 RATIO 2.03
MIN/G 17.99 17.45 22.9 0.17 19.83 24.95 15.15 0.8 14.06 15.97 8.32 17.6 18.66 13.94 14.14 23 21.42 17.12 0.01 MIN/G 283.48

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
MINUTES 18 17 23 0 20 25 15 1 14 16 8 18 19 14 14 23 21 17 0 MINUTES 283
POS/MIN 2.78 2.01 3.45 0.00 2.17 2.00 1.32 1.25 1.64 2.13 0.60 2.61 2.57 2.87 2.90 1.48 3.50 2.39 0.00 POS/MIN 2.24
NEG/MIN 1.00 1.83 1.40 0.00 0.76 0.88 0.99 1.25 1.49 1.19 0.60 1.65 1.34 1.22 0.78 0.78 1.21 1.05 0.00 NEG/MIN 1.10

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
EVENTS/ MIN 3.78 3.84 4.85 0.00 2.92 2.89 2.31 2.50 3.13 3.32 1.20 4.26 3.91 4.09 3.68 2.26 4.72 3.45 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 3.34
RISK/REWARD 1.78 0.17 2.05 0.00 1.41 1.12 0.33 0.00 0.14 0.94 0.00 0.97 1.23 1.65 2.12 0.70 2.29 1.34 0.00 RISK/REWARD 1.14

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT






















OFFENSIVE ZONE





















6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
OZ POS 3 10 28 0 18 8 4 1 11 18 0 18 28 14 20 3 23 8 0 OZ POS 212
OZ NEG 1 19 19 0 7 1 4 1 13 5 1 11 21 3 6 6 7 6 0 OZ NEG 130





















0
MIN/G 17.99 17.45 22.9 0.17 19.83 24.95 15.15 0.8 14.06 15.97 8.32 17.6 18.66 13.94 14.14 23 21.42 17.12 0.01 MIN/G 265.49

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
MINUTES 18 17 23 0 20 25 15 1 14 16 8 18 19 14 14 23 21 17 0 MINUTES 265
POS/MIN 0.17 0.57 1.22 0.00 0.91 0.32 0.26 1.25 0.78 1.13 0.00 1.02 1.50 1.00 1.41 0.13 1.07 0.47 0.00 POS/MIN 0.80
NEG/MIN 0.06 1.09 0.83 0.00 0.35 0.04 0.26 1.25 0.92 0.31 0.12 0.63 1.13 0.22 0.42 0.26 0.33 0.35 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.49

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
EVENTS/ MIN 0.22 1.66 2.05 0.00 1.26 0.36 0.53 2.50 1.71 1.44 0.12 1.65 2.63 1.22 1.84 0.39 1.40 0.82 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 1.29
RISK/REWARD 0.11 -0.52 0.39 0.00 0.55 0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.14 0.81 -0.12 0.40 0.38 0.79 0.99 -0.13 0.75 0.12 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.31

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT






















DEFENSIVE ZONE





















6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
DZ POS 40 14 28 0 20 35 10 0 6 13 4 18 9 22 7 24 39 23 16 DZ POS 328
DZ NEG 15 5 11 0 5 15 6 0 2 8 3 13 4 11 0 8 19 7 6 DZ NEG 138





















0
MIN/G 17.99 17.45 22.9 0.17 19.83 24.95 15.15 0.8 14.06 15.97 8.32 17.6 18.66 13.94 14.14 23 21.42 17.12 0.01 MIN/G 283.48

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
MINUTES 18 17 23 0 20 25 15 1 14 16 8 18 19 14 14 23 21 17 0 MINUTES 283
POS/MIN 2.22 0.80 1.22 0.00 1.01 1.40 0.66 0.00 0.43 0.81 0.48 1.02 0.48 1.58 0.50 1.04 1.82 1.34 0.00 POS/MIN 1.16
NEG/MIN 0.83 0.29 0.48 0.00 0.25 0.60 0.40 0.00 0.14 0.50 0.36 0.74 0.21 0.79 0.00 0.35 0.89 0.41 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.49

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
EVENTS/ MIN 3.06 1.09 1.70 0.00 1.26 2.00 1.06 0.00 0.57 1.31 0.84 1.76 0.70 2.37 0.50 1.39 2.71 1.75 0.00 EVENTS/ MIN 1.64
RISK/REWARD 1.39 0.52 0.74 0.00 0.76 0.80 0.26 0.00 0.28 0.31 0.12 0.28 0.27 0.79 0.50 0.70 0.93 0.93 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.67

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT






















NEUTRAL ZONE





















6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
NZ POS 7 11 23 0 5 7 6 0 6 3 1 10 11 4 14 7 13 10 0 NZ POS 141
NZ NEG 1 7 2 0 4 7 4 0 6 4 3 4 1 0 4 4 0 4 0 NZ NEG 55





















0
MIN/G 17.99 17.45 22.9 0.17 19.83 24.95 15.15 0.8 14.06 15.97 8.32 17.6 18.66 13.94 14.14 23 21.42 17.12 0.01 MIN/G 283.48

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
MINUTES 18 17 23 0 20 25 15 1 14 16 8 18 19 14 14 23 21 17 0 MINUTES 283
POS/MIN 0.39 0.63 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.28 0.40 0.00 0.43 0.19 0.12 0.57 0.59 0.29 0.99 0.30 0.61 0.58 0.00 POS/MIN 0.50
NEG/MIN 0.06 0.40 0.09 0.00 0.20 0.28 0.26 0.00 0.43 0.25 0.36 0.23 0.05 0.00 0.28 0.17 0.00 0.23 0.00 NEG/MIN 0.19

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT
EV/ MIN 0.44 1.03 1.09 0.00 0.45 0.56 0.66 0.00 0.85 0.44 0.48 0.80 0.64 0.29 1.27 0.48 0.61 0.82 0.00 EV/ MIN 0.69
RISK/REWARD 0.33 0.23 0.92 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 -0.06 -0.24 0.34 0.54 0.29 0.71 0.13 0.61 0.35 0.00 RISK/REWARD 0.30

6 13 14 15 21 26 32 45 46 51 52 61 67 68 72 75 76 81 31
TM TOT