In small doses, Andrei Kostitsyn is an incredibly inconsistent player. His play fluctuates from play to play, shift to shift, period to period and game to game. That said, his overall ratings, ratios and offensive production tend to even out over long periods of time. We can see this when examining his average goals, shots and points per game over his 5 full NHL seasons. We can also see this when examining his overall risk/reward trendline this season.
These averages have been calculated over hundreds of games and approximately 2000 individual scouting reports:
Average grade: 67
Average ratio: 2.03
Average risk/reward: 1.31
Average offensive-zone risk/reward: 0.30
Average defensive-zone risk/reward: 0.62
Average neutral-zone risk/reward: 0.30
Kostitsyn has produced an above-average risk/reward rating in only 10 of the 47 games he has played this season. He has earned risk/rewards rating above 2.00 twice, while also earning negative risk/reward ratings on 3 separate occasions.
His overall grade of 65 ranks him 15th among the 18 forwards who have played for the Canadiens this season. Only Petteri Nokelainen, Micheal Blunden, Rene Bourque, and Andreas Engqvist have lower grades than Kostitsyn. He also has the fifteenth-ranked even-strength ratio, as he produces only 1.77 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.
He has the seventh-best success-rate (69%) for plays that require him to acquire or remove puck-possession from the opposition; these plays include puck-battles, loose-puck races, etc. But, he has the lowest success-rate (60%) for plays that require him to maintain puck-possession; these plays include passes, dekes, shots, etc.
Out of 18 forwards, Kostitsyn has the eleventh-best offensive-zone risk/reward rating (0.35), and a below-average offensive-zone ratio of 1.53 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He wins 55% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, and completes 56% of his offensive-zone passes. He gets 51% of his attempted shots on-net, and succeeds with 53% of his attempts to beat opposition players 1on1 (deke)
Among forwards, Kostitsyn has the second-lowest defensive-zone risk/reward (0.23), and a below-average d-zone ratio of 1.62 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He wins 52% of his defensive-zone puck-battles, and completes 59% of his d-zone pass-attempts. He recovers the third-lowest amount of loose-pucks in the defensive-zone among forwards, while only averaging 1 blocked shot every 77 minutes of ice-time. Mathieu Darche averages a blocked shot every 17 minutes of ice-time, while Lars Eller averages one every 16 minutes of ice-time.
Kostitsyn has the fourth-lowest neutral-zone risk/reward rating (0.22) on the team, and a below average neutral-zone ratio of 1.88 successful plays for every one unsuccessful play. He wins only 46% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, and is successful with 69% of his neutral-zone pass-attempts. He has failed to control 21 passes from teammates while in the neutral-zone, and is successful with only 79% of his attempts to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone.
Kostitsyn is already the player he will become. He is a 25-goal threat, who will likely score at least 20 goals on any team. He will average just over 2 shots per-game, and will produce a shooting percentage in-and-around 12.5%. He will also frustrate with his ability to skate into, rather than away from trouble. He will attempt high-risk passes in each zone, and will fail with one out of every four attempts to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone. He will also "wow you" with his talent once every 10 games, fan on a shot from a quality scoring position once every 2 games, and forever leave you wanting more.