Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Another One-game Scouting Report for Anderson and Lundqvist

From game 6 of the 2012 opening-round series between the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers

Both goalies once again earned substantially above-average goaltending ratings in the game. Despite the loss and low save-percentage, Craig Anderson displayed some incredible rebound control. Lundqvist also showed an ability to keep rebounds out of the slot; particularly short-handed.


The 6'2", 183 lbs Anderson finished the regular season with a  33-22-6 record, a 2.84 goals against average, and a .914 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .913 during the regular season, and  .937 during the playoffs.

The 6'1", 195 lbs. Lundqvist finished the regular season with a 39-18-5 record, a 1.97 goals against average, and a .930 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .920 during the regular season, and .914 during the playoffs.

My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, control rebounds, and maintain good balance; the aspects of their game they, and only they, control. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played.

The first number involved in the calculation is the percentage of saves a goalie makes without giving up a rebound. For example, if a goalie makes 10 saves and gives up only 1 rebound his "no rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number in the calculation is the percentage of safe rebounds a goalie gives up for each rebound allowed. Rebounds deflected outside of the main slot are considered safe. As such, a safe rebound is defined as a rebound outside of an imaginary line drawn from each goalpost to the corresponding board-side hash mark. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie gives up 10 rebounds and deflects 9 of those pucks outside the slot, his "safe rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number is the percentage of saves that would be considered "big saves". A big save is defined as any save made on a play that would be considered a traditional scoring chance. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie makes 5 big saves on 20 shots his "big save percentage" would be .250. Once again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


I also track how a goalie controls the puck. I do this by tracking his successful or unsuccessful pass-attempts, as well as his successful or unsuccessful attempts to dump the puck out of his zone. The resulting numbers are used to produce a ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.



SHORT-HANDED GOALTENDING RATING

Despite low save percentages, both goalies earned impressive short-handed goaltending ratings. Lundqvist and Anderson did phenomenal jobs controlling the things they could control; rebounds (second chances).

Anderson earned a short-handed goaltending rating of 2.51. He stopped only 5 of 7 short-handed stops. That said, he allowed only 2 rebounds on those 5 saves, and  didn't allow any of those rebounds to land in the slot. One of his 5 saves came on a New York scoring chance.

Anderson also completed his only attempted pass short-handed.

Lundqvist had a low save-percentage; although it was higher than Anderson's. He earned an incredible short-handed goaltending rating of 2.86. He stopped 6 of 7 shots, and allowed rebounds on only 2 of those 6 saves; none of the rebounds he allowed landed in the slot, and he made 2 saves on Ottawa scoring chances. 

ANDERSON
41
30
LUNDQVIST
O REBOUND %
0.600
0.667
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
1.000
1.000
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.200
0.333
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.714
0.857
SAVE %

41
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
1
0
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
N/A
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

41
30

GOALTENDER RATING
2.51
2.86
GOALTENDER RATING

41
30



OVERALL GOALTENDING RATING

 Both goalies had lower even-strength goaltending ratings, that lowered their overall ratings.

Anderson earned an overall goaltending rating of 2.17. He stopped 19 of 22 shots, and produced 11 rebounds from those 19 saves. He allowed only 3 of those rebounds to land in the slot, and 3 of his 19 saves came on New York scoring chances.

He was successful with all 4 of his attempted passes.

Lundqvist's overall goaltending rating of 2.11 was buoyed by his high save-percentage. He stopped 25 of 27 shots, and allowed 13 rebounds from those 25 stops. Seven of his 13 rebounds landed in the slot, and he made 6 of his 25 saves on Ottawa scoring chances.

He was unsuccessful with his only attempted pass.

Anderson
41
30
Lundqvist
O REBOUND %
0.421
0.480
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
0.727
0.462
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.158
0.240
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.864
0.926
SAVE %

41
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
4
0
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
1
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
0.00
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

41
30

GOALTENDER RATING
2.17
2.11
GOALTENDER RATING

41
30

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