Sunday, April 29, 2012

One-game Scouting Report for Holtby and Lundqvist

Goaltending ratings from Game 1 of the second-round series between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals

Braden Holtby did a better job controlling rebounds, while Henrik Lundqvist simply stopped more shots, as the New York Ranger took a 1-0 lead in the series with a 3-1 win.

Braden Holtby is a 6'2", 203 lbs left-handed shooting goalie. The 22-year-old finished the regular season with a  4-2-1 record, a 2.49 goals against average, and a .922 save percentage. He had not played an NHL playoff game prior to this series.


The 6'1", 195 lbs. Lundqvist finished the regular season with a 39-18-5 record, a 1.97 goals against average, and a .930 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .920 during the regular season, and .914 during the playoffs.

My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, control rebounds, and maintain good balance. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played.

The first number involved in the calculation is the percentage of saves a goalie makes without giving up a rebound. For example, if a goalie makes 10 saves and gives up only 1 rebound his "no rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number in the calculation is the percentage of safe rebounds a goalie gives up for each rebound allowed. Rebounds deflected outside of the main slot are considered safe. As such, a safe rebound is defined as a rebound outside of an imaginary line drawn from each goalpost to the corresponding board-side hash mark. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie gives up 10 rebounds and deflects 9 of those pucks outside the slot, his "safe rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number is the percentage of saves that would be considered "big saves". A big save is defined as any save made on a play that would be considered a traditional scoring chance. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie makes 5 big saves on 20 shots his "big save percentage" would be .250. Once again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


I also track how a goalie controls the puck. I do this by tracking his successful or unsuccessful pass-attempts, as well as his successful or unsuccessful attempts to dump the puck out of his zone. The resulting numbers are used to produce a ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.


SHORT-HANDED GOALTENDING RATING

Holtby's earned a short-handed goaltending rating of 2.50. He stopped both shots he faced, and allowed 1 rebound from those 2 saves.

Lundqivst earned an identical rating, but saw more short-handed shots. He stopped all 6 shots he faced. He allowed 3 rebounds on those 6 saves, but none of the rebounds landed in the slot.

HOLTBY
70
30
LUNDQVIST
O REBOUND %
0.500
0.500
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
1.000
1.000
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.000
0.000
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
1.000
1.000
SAVE %

70
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
N/A
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

70
30

GOALTENDER RATING
2.50
2.50
GOALTENDER RATING

70
30



OVERALL GOALTENDING RATING

Holtby's rebound control was significantly better than Lundqvist. So much better in fact, that it carried him to a higher overall rating; despite a substantially lower save-percentage.

Holtby stopped only 11of 14 shots. That said, he produced only 5 rebounds from those 11 saves, and only 1 rebound landed in the slot. Expressed differently, this means that Holtby allowed only one dangerous rebound the entire game! His save-percentage not only cost the game, but it also stopped him from earing a record-high rating. One of his 11 saves came on New York scoring chances, and he was successful with only 1 of his 3 pass-attempts.

Lundqvist had an slightly above-average overall rating of 1.94. He had a great save-percentage, but his rebound control was unusually weak. He stopped 17 of 18 shots, and allowed  12 rebounds from those 17 stops.  Five of those 12 rebounds landed in the slot, and he made 2 saves on Washington scoring chances. He was successfu with both of his pass-attempts.

HOLTBY
41
30
LUNDQVIST
O REBOUND %
0.545
0.294
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
0.800
0.583
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.091
0.118
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.786
0.944
SAVE %

41
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
1
2
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
2
0
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
0.50
N/A
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

41
30

GOALTENDER RATING
2.22
1.94
GOALTENDER RATING

41
30

No comments:

Post a Comment