Thursday, May 24, 2012

HABS: Individual Player Giveaway Percentages

The goal of any team is to maintain puck-possession. The more often a team has possession of the puck, the less chance the other team has to score. It is one of the most basic truths in a possession-based game like hockey. With this in mind, the more often a player causes his team to lose puck-possession, the less he is helping his team win. The graph is a visual representation of every Montreal Canadiens skater's failure-rate when his team is already in possession of the puck. The calculation allows us to quantify each player's tendency to hurt his team by giving the puck away to the opposition.The events used in this calculation include:
  • Successful passes
  • Failed passes
  • Successful dekes
  • Failed dekes
  • Missed passes (from teammates)
  • Successful shots through to the net
  • Failed shots through to the net
These results are restricted to even-strength play at even-strength.  THE HIGHER THE NUMBER THE MORE A PLAYER HURTS HIS TEAM.


These results are more indicative than straight turnover totals; these take into account the total number of events. Basing an opinion on just the turnover total is simply irresponsible; the players who have the puck most often will always be the players with the highest giveaway total. 

Gabriel Dumont's low event-totals force us to remove him from the comparables. More data is needed in order to include him.


The player with the lowest FAILURE-RATE when it comes to maintaining puck-possession, and as such, the Habs best puck-possession player is; Tomas Kaberle. Only 28% of the events Kaberle engages in when the Canadiens already have possession of the puck result in a turnover.  Other defensemen with low failure-rates include Josh Gorges, PK Subban and Andrei Markov.

The defenseman with the highest failure-rate, and as such, the player most likely to lose possession of the puck; is Yannick Weber. Forty percent of Weber's events that occur when the Canadiens already have possession of the puck result in a turnover.

Among forwards with substantial events, Scott Gomez has the lowest failure-rate. Only 40% of Gomez's events when in possession of the puck result in a turnover. Other forwards with low failure-rates include; Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, Ryan White, and Mathieu Darche.

Brad Staubitz has the highest failure-rate. He loses the puck during 60% of his puck-possession events. Expressed more simply, Staubitz gives the puck away 60% of the time he has it on his stick. Other players with failure-rates above 50% include; Petteri Nokelainen, Rene Bourque, Micheal Blunden, Blake Geoffrion, and Erik Cole. Cole's high failure-rate is the result of the high-risk dekes he attempts in the offensive-zone. That said, hard-nose plays like these have a long-term impact on opposition defensemen; often forcing them closer to their own net.


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