Tuesday, May 1, 2012

One-game Scouting Report for Holtby and Lundqvist

Goaltending ratings from Game 2 of the second-round series between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals

Despite the 3-2 loss, it was Lundqvist's turn to do a better job controlling rebounds, as he edged out Holtby for the game's top rating.  Holby's rating was helped by a solid save-percentage, but hurt significantly by his rebound control.

Braden Holtby is a 6'2", 203 lbs left-handed shooting goalie. The 22-year-old finished the regular season with a  4-2-1 record, a 2.49 goals against average, and a .922 save percentage. He had not played an NHL playoff game prior to these playoffs.

The 6'1", 195 lbs. Lundqvist finished the regular season with a 39-18-5 record, a 1.97 goals against average, and a .930 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .920 during the regular season, and .914 during the playoffs.

My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, control rebounds, and maintain good balance. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played.

The first number involved in the calculation is the percentage of saves a goalie makes without giving up a rebound. For example, if a goalie makes 10 saves and gives up only 1 rebound his "no rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number in the calculation is the percentage of safe rebounds a goalie gives up for each rebound allowed. Rebounds deflected outside of the main slot are considered safe. As such, a safe rebound is defined as a rebound outside of an imaginary line drawn from each goalpost to the corresponding board-side hash mark. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie gives up 10 rebounds and deflects 9 of those pucks outside the slot, his "safe rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number is the percentage of saves that would be considered "big saves". A big save is defined as any save made on a play that would be considered a traditional scoring chance. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie makes 5 big saves on 20 shots his "big save percentage" would be .250. Once again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


I also track how a goalie controls the puck. I do this by tracking his successful or unsuccessful pass-attempts, as well as his successful or unsuccessful attempts to dump the puck out of his zone. The resulting numbers are used to produce a ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.


SHORT-HANDED GOALTENDING RATING

Holtby earned a short-handed goaltending rating of 2.17. He stopped 2 of 3 short-handed shots, and allowed 1 rebound; this rebound did not land in the slot.

Lundqvist earned a short-handed rating of 1.86. He stopped 6 of 7 shots, and produced 4 rebounds. Two of those rebounds landed in the slot, and he made 1 save on a Washington scoring chance.

HOLTBY
70
30
LUNDQVIST
O REBOUND %
0.500
0.333
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
1.000
0.500
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.000
0.167
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.667
0.857
SAVE %

70
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
N/A
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

70
30

GOALTENDER RATING
2.17
1.86
GOALTENDER RATING

70
30



OVERALL GOALTENDING RATING

Holtby earned a below-average overall rating of  1.77. He made a higher percentage of big saves, but did not do a great job controlling the amount, or the placement of his rebounds. He stopped 26 of 28 shots, and produced 18 rebounds. Eleven of these rebounds landed in the slot, and he made 4 saves on New York scoring chances.

Holtby completed each of his 3 attempted passes.

Lundqvist earned an overall rating of 1.95. He had a low save-percentage, but made up for it with solid rebound control. He stopped 22 of 25 shots, and allowed  14 rebounds. Only 6 of these rebounds landed in the slot; which was the strength of his goaltending rating. He also made 3 saves on Washington scoring chances.

Lundqvist was successful with 4 of his 5 pass-attempts; giving him a puck-handling ratio of 4 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.

HOLTBY
70
30
LUNDQVIST
O REBOUND %
0.269
0.364
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
0.421
0.571
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.154
0.136
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.929
0.880
SAVE %

70
30

SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
3
4
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
1
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
4.00
PUCK PLAYS RATIO

70
30

GOALTENDER RATING
1.77
1.95
GOALTENDER RATING

70
30

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