Tuesday, July 31, 2012

HABS: Impact of Save Percentage on Wins and Losses

Save-percentage the difference in most games

The new Montreal Canadiens management group have been unwavering in their support of Carey Price. Marc Bergevin has repeated numerous times his view that strong goaltending is key to a successful team. He's also mentioned how difficult top-tier goaltending is to acquire, and how important Price is to the organization in both the short, and long-term.

How important?

The fluctuation in the Montreal Canadiens save-percentage from games the team won to games they lost was incredible.

SAVE PERCENTAGE

The Habs averaged a save percentage of only .892 in games they lost. That same save-percentage improved to an incredible .947 in games the team won. Time spent short-handed likely had an impact on the save-percentage as well, as Montreal averaged 4.04 powerplays against during losses, and 3.52 during wins; save-percentages drop substantially when teams are short-handed.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

SAVE PERCENTAGE
0.892
0.947
SAVE PERCENTAGE


 SHOTS FOR / AGAINST

Not surprisingly, Montreal averaged more shots for, and less shots against during games they won. They averaged 0.26 more shots per-game in wins. But, it was shots against that fluctuated the most between wins and losses, as the Habs gave up 1.74 more shots per-game during losses.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

SHOTS FOR
27.80
28.06
SHOTS FOR
SHOTS AGAINST
30.90
29.16
SHOTS AGAINST


GOALS FOR / AGAINST

Not surprisingly, the Habs allowed substantially more goals against in losses, and scored significantly more goals during wins. That said, it is the fluctuation that is surprising. Montreal averaged 3.81 goals per-game when they won, and only 1.71 goals per-game in losses. They gave up only 1.58 goals per-game during wins, but averaged 3.25 goals against in losses.

 LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.
GOALS FOR
1.71
3.81
GOALS FOR
GOALS AGAINST
3.25
1.58
GOALS AGAINST


GAME BY GAME SAVE PERCENTAGE

How much pressure was on the Canadiens goaltending?

Montreal won only 4 games all season when their goaltender's save-percentage fell below .900. In fact, it wasn't until the 40th game of the season that the team first managed this feat. Montreal goaltenders lost nineteen times despite producing save-percentages above .910.

*the graph indicates the save-percentage earned in each Montreal Canadiens game during the 2011-12 season. Lines in green indicate wins, while lines in red indicate losses.

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