Monday, July 30, 2012

HABS: Quantifying the Impact of Special Teams on Wins/losses

 Getting more shots through to the net is a key powerplay stat

The Montreal Canadiens finished the 2011-12 season with the 18th-best goals for/against ratio at even-strength. In fact, they were a "plus" even-strength team through much of the first-half.

The team absolutely struggled on the powerplay; ending the year with the 28th ranked powerplay, after treading water at 29th and 30th much of the season. Thankfully, the penalty-killing held the fort; finishing second in the league with a success-rate of 88.6%.

Communicating the results is easy. The challenge becomes figuring out what produced those results, and what impact those events had on the win/loss column


POWERPLAY / SHORT-HANDED RISK/REWARD RATING

The Habs produced a substantially better powerplay risk/reward rating during wins. Their powerplay risk/reward rating was 2.09 during losses, and 2.29 during wins. This 0.20 translates to 2 more successful passes, dekes, shots-through, etc. per 2 minute powerplay.

Their short-handed risk/reward rating was also better during wins than it was during losses; jumping from 0.87 to 0.95. The 0.08 translates to just-under 1 more successful blocked shot, intercepted-pass, successful dump-out, etc. per 2 minute powerplay against.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

PP RATING
2.09
2.29
PP RATING
SH RATING
0.87
0.95
SH RATING

LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.




POWERPLAY GOALS / CHANCES

The powerplay's impact on wins and losses was substantial. The Canadiens averaged just 0.31 powerplay goals per-game during losses, but managed an impressive 0.84 powerplay goals per-game during wins.

Equally interesting is the fact that the Habs actually had more powerplay chances during losses. Montreal averaged 3.75 powerplays per-game during losses, and 3.42 powerplays per-game during wins.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

POWERPLAY GOALS FOR
0.31
0.84
POWERPLAY GOALS FOR
POWERPLAY CHANCES FOR
3.75
3.42
POWERPLAY CHANCES FOR

LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.



POWERPLAY PASSING/ SHOOTING

Breaking these numbers down into the most important events, we find that getting shots through to the net is essential for a successful powerplay, and by extension was the one powerplay event that had the largest impact on winning or losing.

Montreal players were able to get 55.53% of their powerplay shots through to the net during games they won, but only 45.03 % of their shots through during losses. This translates to one extra shot-on-net for every 10 attempted shots. Which potentially means one extra rebound, and one extra scoring-chance.

Passing also has an impact on powerplay success. During losses, Habs players' were successful with 78.76 % of their offensive-zone passes while on the powerplay, and 82.61 % of their o-zone PP pass-attempts during wins. This translates to one extra completed pass for every 20 attempted passes.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

O-ZONE POWERPLAY PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
78.76
82.61
O-ZONE POWERPLAY PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
PP SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE
45.03
55.53
PP SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE

LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.



PENALTY-KILLING

POWERPLAY GOALS AGAINST/CHANCES

The Habs successful penalty-killing paid huge dividends in terms of wins. The Habs allowed 0.63 powerplay goals against per-game during games they lost, but cut that down to only 0.16 PP goals-against per-game during wins. 

Team discipline also had a big impact on the win/loss column. Not surprising, Montreal was short-handed more often in games they lost, than in games they won. Allowing 4.04 powerplay chances against during losses, and 3.52 PP chances against during wins. 


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

POWERPLAY GOALS AGAINST
0.63
0.16
POWERPLAY GOALS AGAINST
POWERPLAY CHANCED AGAINST
4.04
3.52
POWERPLAY CHANCED AGAINST

LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.



SHORT-HANDED DEFENSIVE-PLAY

Breaking the numbers down into some of the more important short-handed events, we find that successfully dumping the puck out of the defensive-zone, and blocking passing-lanes had a direct impact on wins and losses.

Montreal players were successful with only 50.8% of their attempts to block opposition powerplay passes during losses, but improved their success-rate to 54.01 during wins.

Taking advantage of opportunities to dump the puck out of the d-zone while short-handed also played a big role in successfully killing penalties. Canadiens players were successful with 65.6% of their attempts to dump the puck out during losses, and 69.64 % of their short-handed attempts to clear the d-zone during wins.

The higher number of blocked shots during losses are simply the result of more time spent short-handed during these same losses.


LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.

SHORT-HANDED SHOTS BLOCKED
3.39
3.06
SHORT-HANDED SHOTS BLOCKED
SHORT-HANDED PASSES BLOCKED/INTERCEPTED
50.88
54.01
SHORT-HANDED PASSES BLOCKED/INTERCEPTED
SHORT-HANDED DUMP-OUT SUCCESS-RATE
65.62
69.64
SHORT-HANDED DUMP-OUT SUCCESS-RATE

LOSS AVG.
WIN AVG.



How important is getting powerplay shots through to the net?

Erik Cole led all Canadiens players with an impressive 11 powerplay goals. Cole also led all Habs with a 70% success-rate when attempting to get PP shots through to the net. Tomas Plekanec and PK Subban had the second-most powerplay goals with 5, but were successful getting only 45% and 46% of their attempted powerplay shot through, respectively.


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