Sunday, August 5, 2012

One-game Scouting Report for Carey Price and Roberto Luongo

This scouting report is from the March 10th, 2012 game between the Vancouver Canucks and the Montreal Canadiens. Montreal won the game 4-1.

Carey Price is the Montreal Canadiens undisputed number 1 goalie. Price is a 6'3", 220 lbs left-handed shooting goalie. Price finished the 2011-12 regular season with a 26-28-11 record, a 2.43 goals against average, and a .916 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .916 during the regular season, and .907 during the playoffs.

The 6'3", 217 lbs. Luongo finished the 2011-12 regular season with a 35-21-13 record, a 1.95 goals against average, and a .929 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .919 during the regular season, and .917 during the playoffs.

My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, and control rebounds. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played.

The first number involved in the calculation is the percentage of saves a goalie makes without giving up a rebound. For example, if a goalie makes 10 saves and gives up only 1 rebound his "no rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performed.


The next number in the calculation is the percentage of safe rebounds a goalie gives up for each rebound allowed. Rebounds deflected outside of the main slot are considered safe. As such, a safe rebound is defined as a rebound outside of an imaginary line drawn from each goalpost to the corresponding board-side hash mark. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie gives up 10 rebounds and deflects 9 of those pucks outside the slot, his "safe rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number is the percentage of saves that would be considered "big saves". A big save is defined as any save made on a play that would be considered a traditional scoring chance. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie makes 5 big saves on 20 shots his "big save percentage" would be .250. Once again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


I also track how a goalie controls the puck. I do this by tracking his successful or unsuccessful pass-attempts, as well as his successful or unsuccessful attempts to dump the puck out of his zone. The resulting numbers are used to produce a ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.


SHORT-HANDED GOALTENDING RATING

 Price produced a substantially higher short-handed goaltending rating than Luongo. Luongo made more "big saves" short-handed, but Price did a better job controlling the existence of any rebounds.

Price had an impressive short-handed rating of 2.75. He stopped all 4 short-handed shot he faced. He allowed 2 rebounds from those 4 saves, none of which landed in the slot. He also made one save on a Vancouver scoring chance.

Luongo had a low short-handed goaltending rating of 1.76. He stopped 8 of 9 shots he faced, and allowed 4 rebounds. All 4 of those rebounds landed in the slot, and 3 of his 8 saves came on Montreal scoring chances.






OVERALL GOALTENDING RATING

Price's even-strength rating was actually lower than his short-handed rating, while Luongo's overall rating was helped by his play at even-strength.

Price had an above-average overall goaltending rating of 2.12. His rating was buoyed by a high save-percentage, and solid rebound control. Overall he stopped 32 of 33 shots. He produced rebounds from 17 of those saves, while 8 of those rebounds landed in the slot. Five of his saves came on Vancouver scoring chances.

Price was successful with only 5 of 9 pass-attempts; giving him a puck-handling ratio of 1.25 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. 

Despite a low save-percentage, Luongo produced a solid overall goaltending rating of 2.01.  This was thanks to a high "big save" percentage, and some solid work avoiding the existence of rebounds. Overall he stopped 31 of 35 shots. He allowed rebounds from 17 of those saves, and 10 of those rebounds landed in the slot. He also made an impressive 8 saves on Montreal scoring chances.

Luongo was successful with 4 of 6 pass-attempts, and failed with his only attempt to dump the puck out of the defensive-zone. As such, he produced a puck-handling ratio of 1.33 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.


Keep in mind, this is simply a one-game scouting report. As such, it is only meant as a reflection of each goalies performance during this one-game.

No comments:

Post a Comment