Wednesday, November 7, 2012

HABS: Quantifying the Offensive-zone play of Montreal Canadiens forward prospects playing in Hamilton

Tracking each puck-possession event during a game allows us to build a solid vision of each player's strengths and weaknesses. Individual player files organize the data so we can track each of these statistics independently, and compare them against the player's past performances, other players who play the same position, as well as the entire team.

These player files are broken down into zones (offensive, defensive, neutral), where we can display each specific rating or event total. 

Included here are the offensive-zone scouting reports for each of the Canadiens 8 forward prospects playing for the Hamilton Bulldogs this season. The data included within comes from four separate AHL games this season; the only player with only 3 games included in his file is Joonas Nattinen, as he has only played in only 3 of the games scouted. 

At the bottom of the page, I've included explanations for each statistic listed.


#13 QUAILER
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER       YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.39 0.26
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 1.67 1.30
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  0.264 0.391 0.372 0.516
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE /MP 74.4% 68.3% 83.3% 100.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP 1.174 1.566 1.568 1.979
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 75.0% 69.2%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP 0.056 0.061 0.078 0.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP 0.323 0.465 0.333 0.344
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 48.6% 44.4%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.277 0.402 0.392 0.516
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.153 0.232 0.157 0.258
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 40.0% 50.0%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES 0.109 0.190 0.176 2.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  0.054 0.096 0.118 1.000
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 66.7% 50.0%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP 0.230 0.228 0.118 0.086
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP 0.116 0.136 0.059 0.000
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 50.0% 0.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%



#17 GALLAGHER
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER       YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.64 0.92
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 2.32 3.60
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  0.264 0.391 0.362 0.283
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE  74.4% 68.3% 75.0% 100.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP 1.174 1.566 1.604 1.630
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 80.0% 85.7%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP 0.056 0.061 0.086 0.071
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP 0.323 0.465 0.569 0.850
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 62.3% 75.0%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.277 0.402 0.345 0.425
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.153 0.232 0.224 0.283
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 65.0% 66.7%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES 0.109 0.190 0.276 0.496
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  0.054 0.096 0.138 0.354
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 50.0% 71.4%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP 0.230 0.228 0.293 0.213
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP 0.116 0.136 0.207 0.213
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 70.6% 100.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 5.9% 33.3%



#20 BOURNIVAL
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER      YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.36 0.66
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 1.74 3.25
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  0.264 0.391 0.287 0.294
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE /MP 74.4% 68.3% 50.0% N/A
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP 1.174 1.566 1.326 1.250
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 69.7% 57.1%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP 0.056 0.061 0.072 0.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP 0.323 0.465 0.430 0.662
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 60.0% 90.0%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.277 0.402 0.394 0.294
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.153 0.232 0.233 0.221
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 59.1% 75.0%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES 0.109 0.190 0.161 0.147
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  0.054 0.096 0.090 0.147
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 55.6% 100.0%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP 0.230 0.228 0.161 0.294
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP 0.116 0.136 0.107 0.294
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 66.7% 100.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%



#23 NATTINEN
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER       YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.56 0.60
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 2.00 4.00
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  N/A 0.391 0.402 0.402
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE 74.4% 68.3% 90.9% 100.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS  N/A 1.566 1.687 1.004
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 84.8% 100.0%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES  N/A 0.061 0.080 0.201
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS N/A 0.465 0.375 0.100
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 48.3% 33.3%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.402 0.375 0.201
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.232 0.161 0.000
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 42.9% 0.0%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES N/A 0.190 0.134 0.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  N/A 0.096 0.080 0.000
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 60.0% N/A
ATTEMPTED SHOTS  N/A 0.228 0.268 0.100
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET  N/A 0.136 0.134 0.100
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 50.0% 100.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%



#28 PALUSHAJ
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER     YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.33 0.60
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 1.46 1.67
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  N/A 0.391 0.431 0.602
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE 74.4% 68.3% 41.7% N/A
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS  N/A 1.566 1.784 2.410
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 71.4% 78.6%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES  N/A 0.061 0.059 0.151
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS N/A 0.465 0.470 0.678
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 52.2% 52.9%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.402 0.490 0.753
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.232 0.270 0.452
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 56.0% 33.3%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES N/A 0.190 0.255 0.370
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  N/A 0.096 0.098 0.151
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 38.5% 40.0%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS  N/A 0.228 0.157 0.151
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET  N/A 0.136 0.098 0.075
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 62.5% 100.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%




#37 HOLLAND
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER     YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.75 0.80
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 2.56 3.00
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  N/A 0.391 0.426 0.482
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE 74.4% 68.3% 81.8% 100.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS  N/A 1.566 1.722 1.606
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 91.7% 100.0%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES  N/A 0.061 0.019 0.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS N/A 0.465 0.600 0.562
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 58.5% 58.3%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.402 0.484 0.562
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES  N/A 0.232 0.329 0.321
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 68.0% 57.1%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES N/A 0.190 0.194 0.241
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  N/A 0.096 0.135 0.161
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 70.0% 66.7%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS  N/A 0.228 0.348 0.161
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET  N/A 0.136 0.135 0.080
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 38.9% 50.0%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 5.6% 0.0%



#40 DUMONT
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER     YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.55 0.21
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 1.93 1.33
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  0.264 0.391 0.493 0.425
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE  74.4% 68.3% 100.0% N/A
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP 1.174 1.566 1.734 1.488
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 84.6% 88.9%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP 0.056 0.061 0.099 0.142
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP 0.323 0.465 0.493 0.283
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 53.2% 36.4%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.277 0.402 0.374 0.213
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.153 0.232 0.197 0.071
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 52.6% 33.3%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES 0.109 0.190 0.236 0.142
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  0.054 0.096 0.138 0.071
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 58.3% 50.0%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP 0.230 0.228 0.315 0.425
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP 0.116 0.136 0.158 0.142
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 50.0% 33.3%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%



#57 GEOFFRION
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH) YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG. FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER     YEAR-TO-DATE PLAYER LAST GAME
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING 0.36 0.49 0.45 0.57
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS) 1.87 1.92 1.83 1.89
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES  0.264 0.391 0.429 0.425
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE  74.4% 68.3% 33.3% 25.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP 1.174 1.566 1.518 1.843
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE 79.8% 78.1% 69.2% 63.6%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP 0.056 0.061 0.000 0.000
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP 0.323 0.465 0.500 0.709
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE 52.4% 56.6% 60.9% 66.7%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.277 0.402 0.464 0.496
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP 0.153 0.232 0.286 0.283
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE 55.2% 57.8% 61.5% 57.1%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES 0.109 0.190 0.125 0.071
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES  0.054 0.096 0.036 0.000
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE 50.0% 50.5% 28.6% 0.0%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP 0.230 0.228 0.232 0.496
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP 0.116 0.136 0.179 0.425
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE 50.3% 59.6% 76.9% 85.7%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS) 3.7% 4.6% 15.4% 28.6%



Offensive-zone risk/reward rating shows how many more successful than unsuccessful plays a player made within the offensive-zone per-minute of ice-time. O-zone risk/reward gives us an overall, less specific view of a player's performance. Because this statistic uses ice-time within its calculation, a player must not only make successful plays, he must also be involved in the play; the more a player engages (successfully), the higher his risk/reward.

Offensive-zone ratio shows the number of successful plays a player makes for every 1 unsuccessful play. Like Offensive-zone risk/reward, offensive-zone ratio produces an overall, less specific view of a player's performance. Unlike risk/reward, it does take into account ice-time.

Offensive-zone loose-puck recoveries occur when a player gains possession of a puck that was not (at the time of taking possession) being controlled by any other player on the ice.  A player is credited with a loose-puck recovery when he wins a race to a loose-puck, gains control of a loose-puck out of a puck-battle (supporting the play), or gains control of a loose-puck while being pressured by an opposing player. In turn, a player is credited with a failed loose-puck recovery when he is unable to control a loose-puck, or looses a race to a loose-puck.

Offensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage represents how successful a player is at removing puck-possession from the opposition. A player is credited with a won puck-battle when he removes puck-possession from an opposing player. In turn, he is credited with a lost puck-battle when he engages an opposing player that has possession of the puck without removing possession from the opposition player.

Tracking offensive-zone puck-battle winning percentage allows us to quantify each player's ability to remove puck-possession from the opposition. Player's who rate high within this category usually have strong sticks, play the body well, and are good defensively.

Offensive-zone Events per-minute played measure how involved a player is in the offensive-zone. Both successful and unsuccessful events are included. Tracking o-zone events per minute played allows us to compare how involved each player is in a specific zone.

Forechecking success-rate represents how successful a player is at removing or acquiring puck-possession from the opposition in the offensive-zone. Events used in this calculation include offensive-zone puck-battles, loose-puck recoveries, and intercepted passes. Tracking forechecking success allows us to compare how each player performs when attempting to remove and/or acquire puck-possession from the opposition in the offensive-zone.

Tracking Intercepted opposition passes per minute played allows us to quantify how often a player is able to intercept or deflect an opposition pass-attempt in the offensive-zone. A player does not need to control the opposition pass in order to be credited with an intercepted pass, he simply needs to deflect the puck enough to make the pass incomplete.

Successful offensive-zone puck-possession plays per minute played represent how many successful plays per-minute of ice-time a player is able to make while in possession of the puck. Events within this category include successful passes, dekes, and shots on goal. A player's team must maintain possession, or get a shot on net for that player to be credited with a successful puck-possession play. Tracking successful offensive-zone puck-possession plays per-minute played allows us to compare how often each player is able to make a successful play while in possession of the puck in the offensive-zone.

Offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate represents how successful a player is at maintaining possession, or getting a shot on net. This is calculated by taking the total number of successful passes, dekes and shots on net, and dividing that by the total number of attempted (failed and completed) passes, dekes and shots on net. Tracing offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate allows us to compare how well each player is able to maintain puck-possession for his team in the offensive-zone. Expressed more simply, the higher the o-zone puck-possession success-rate, the better the player is at creating offense.

True shooting-percentage represents the percentage of a player's attempted shots that result in a goal. This is calculated by taking the number of goals a player scores, and dividing that by the total number of shots (on net, blocked, or missed the net) a player attempts.



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