Habs: Poweplay Puck-possession Ratings and Ratios

Successful poweplays start with solid puck-possession. Powerplay poison is any play that involves the loss of puck-possession without a shot on net.

One way to gauge how specific players contribute to the powerplay is to track their success-rates for plays that involve maintaining puck-possession. Plays within this category include passes, dekes, dump-ins, and shots on net. The calculation is made by dividing successful plays within these events by the total amount of plays within these events.

The numbers included here are specific to plays occurring while the Canadiens are on the powerplay.

Success-rates for Gill, Nokelainen, and Engqvist should be excluded due to a limited amount of events.

Tomas Kaberle has the best success-rate for those players with substantial PP ice-time. Other defensemen with substantial PP time, and success-rates above 80% include Yannick Weber, Raphael Diaz and PK Subban. Among this group, Subban has the lowest success-rate.

Among forwards with substantial ice-time, Tomas Plekanec has the top success-rate for plays that involve maintaining puck-possession. Other players with success-rates above 75% include Desharnais and Pacioretty. Plekanec's rating is the product of a solid powerplay passing success-rate, while Desharnais also has a solid PP passing success-rate. Pacioretty's success-rate is the product of his puck-battle success-rate and an impressive amount of loose-puck recoveries.

Another way to measure players impact on the powerplay is to measure the ratio of successful plays to mistakes or lost puck-battles. Events within this category include only those taking place while the Habs are on the powerplay.

Kaberle has far-and-away the top powerplay ratio. Other PP regulars with solid ratios include Plekanec, Pacioretty and Desharnais.

Kaberle Playing Like Kaberle

Consistently above-average numbers since joining Habs

Tomas Kaberle came to the Montreal Canadiens as a result of a trade with the Carolina Hurricanes on December 9th, 2011. The Habs sent defenseman Jaroslav Spacek to the Hurricanes in exchange for Kaberle. After 20 games with Montreal, Kaberle has produced substantially better numbers than Spacek in almost every category; including defensive-zone risk/reward and defensive-zone ratio.

The reason for Kaberle's arrival was the ineffective powerplay. Although the powerplay success-rate has improved slightly, it is not nearly where it needs to be in order to help win games. That said, Kaberle does have far-and-away the team's best powerplay risk/reward rating (3.46), and his powerplay ratio remains an incredible 4.63 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle.

Kaberle is a passer, and he's been successful at what he does. He completes an incredible 93% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts while on the powerplay, and 87% of his defensive-zone pass-attempts while on the PP. Unfortunately, he only gets 29% of his attempted shot attempts through to the net.

At even-strength, Kaberle is successful during 73% of the events he engages in that require him to remove or obtain puck-possession from the opposition. Plays in this category include puck-battles, blocked passes, etc. He is successful with 76% (team-best) of the events he engages in that require him to maintain puck-possession. Plays in this category include passes, dekes, etc.


OFFENSIVE-ZONE

Kaberle has the best offensive-zone risk/reward rating among Canadiens defensemen, and the ninth-best o-zone rating on the team. Incredibly, he actually has the best offensive-zone ratio on the entire team. His ratio of 2.58 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is 0.70 better than any other player.

He wins only 47% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, but completes 75% of his offensive-zone passes; well above the team average of 60%. In contrast to his powerplay problems, Kaberle gets 79% of his attempted even-strength shots through to the net.

NEUTRAL-ZONE

Kaberle has the fourth-best neutral-zone risk/reward rating among Habs defensemen. His 0.29 rating is just slightly below the team-average. That said, his neutral-zone ratio of 4.20 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is actually tops on the team.

He wins 57% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, and completes 77% of his neutral-zone pass-attempts; both numbers are above the team-average. He also gets 92% of his attempted dump-ins deep into the offensive-zone, and has intercepted 9 opposition passes in the neutral-zone.

DEFENSIVE-ZONE

Kaberle has the second-best defensive-zone risk/reward rating behind only PK Subban. His d-zone ratio of 2.77 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is tops on the team; just slightly ahead of Josh Gorges 2.73.

He wins 59% of his defensive-zone puck-battles; mostly through finesse, and a strong (but short) stick. He also completes 78% of his defensive-zone pass-attempts and 67% of his attempted dump-outs. Kaberle has also blocked 25 shots and intercepted 33 passes.


EARLY RESULTS

Any observers take on Kaberle comes down to expectations. If you're looking for a dynamic defensemen with a booming shot and an ability to intimidate the opposition, than you are obviously looking in the wrong direction. But, if you're looking for a puck-moving defenseman with an ability to move the puck up ice, while  choosing the successful high-percentage play; then Kaberle is your man.

The important decision going forward is whether Markov's eventual return makes Kaberle's existence redundant, and whether or not Kaberle's cap hit could be better used elsewhere. 

Habs: Early Numbers for Rene Bourque

Rene Bourque was picked up in a trade involving Mike Cammalleri on January 13th, 2012. Bourque is a strong offensive winger, with a solid shot. The 6'2" left-handed winger has scored over 20 goals in each of the last 3 seasons, and is currently on pace to equal his career-high of 27 goals. Among his Montreal Canadiens teammates, only Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty have scored more goals this season than Bourque, who has averaged a goal every 4 games over his NHL career.

Please keep in mind that the amount of data to-date on Bourque is extremely limited. That said, a look at his numbers thus far remains an interesting exercise.

Bourque has the fourteenth-best overall grade (64) among the 18 forwards who have played with Montreal this season. by comparison, Cammalleri had produced a grade of 67 with Montreal this season. Bourque's best numbers are produced in the offensive-zone.

Bourque actually has the lowest overall risk/reward rating (0.73) among Habs forwards this season. Bourque's special-team numbers haven't helped, as he has a negative risk/reward rating on both the powerplay and penalty-kill. By comparison, Cammalleri had produced an overall risk/reward of 1.21 this season. He has an overall ratio of 1.59 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle, while Cammalleri left Montreal with an overall ratio of 1.86.

As mentioned, Bourque's special team numbers have hurt his overall rating. At even-strength he has the sixteenth-best risk/reward rating among 18 forwards. His rating is higher than only Andrei Kostitsyn and Michael Blunden. He has an even-strength ratio of 1.65; slightly lower than Cammalleri's 1.81.

OFFENSIVE-ZONE

Bourque's offensive-zone risk/reward rating (0.35) is tenth-best among forwards, while his o-zone ratio (1.44) is only slightly lower than Cammalleri's 1.62. Both Bourques' o-zone ratio and o-zone risk/reward are higher than the team average. He's won 48% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, and has completed only 49% of his o-zone pass-attempts. In comparison, Cammalleri had a better passing-percentage, while Bourque has a better success-rate during puck-battles. Bourque has been able to get 52% of his attempted shots through to the net, while Cammalleri's number in this event was 56%.

DEFENSIVE-ZONE

Bourque has the tenth-best defensive-zone risk/reward rating (0.31), while his d-zone ratio is an acceptable 2.00 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. Both his ratio and rating in the defensive-zone are substantially better than Cammalleri. Bourque has won 52% of his defensive-zone puck-battles, and has completed an impressive 93% of his d-zone passes. An interesting statistic shows that Bourque averages 1 blocked shot for every 22 minutes of ice-time, while Cammalleri averaged a disappointing 1 blocked shot for every 63 minutes of ice-time.

NEUTRAL-ZONE

Bourque has struggled in the neutral-zone thus far. He has both the lowest neutral-zone risk/reward (0.16) and the lowest neutral-zone ratio on the Habs this season. He's won only 33% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, and has completed 73% of his neutral-zone pass-attempts. That said, he has been successful with 92% of his attempts to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone; well above the team average of 81%.

Bourque has a 66% success-rate when engaging in events that require him to remove or obtain puck-possession from the oppostion. Events in this category include puck-battles, blocked passes, etc. He has a 59% success-rate for plays that require him to maintain puck-possession. Events in this category include passes, dekes, etc.  Cammalleri had better numbers in both categories.

EARLY RESULTS

Bourque's defensive-zone passing is carrying his ratings, while his work winning puck-battles in the neutral-zone is hurting his rating. He's shown an ability to recover loose-pucks in the offensive-zone, as only Pacioretty averages more loose-puck recoveries in the offensive-zone per-minute played. His work along the boards in the defensive-zone has also been impressive. His 93% d-zone passing success-rate has gone a long way in moving the puck out of the d-zone quickly and efficiently.

PK Subban; By the Numbers

Nothing more than the Montreal Canadiens best skater

PK Subban is easily among the top-6 defensemen in the NHL under the age of twenty-three. He plays huge minutes on a struggling team, yet has an even traditional plus/minus rating, and the second-highest point total among Montreal Canadiens defensemen. He leads all Habs in total ice-time, and ice-time per-game. He has third-most ice-time on the league's worst powerplay unit, yet also has the fifth most short-handed minutes-played per-game on the NHL's top penalty-killing unit.

Did I mention he was 22-years-old?

Too often the focus is on one mistake when it comes to Subban. Yes, one mistake can change a game. But what about 73 successful plays?

Not only does Subban have the most ice-time, he is also the most involved player on the Canadiens. He engages in 4.32 events per-minute of ice-time. If we multiply that by his ice-time this shows that Subban makes an average of 102 plays per-game that influence puck-possession. No other player on the Habs averages more than 84 events (or plays) per-game. Of those plays, Subban makes 73 plays that acquire or maintain puck-possession, and only 29 that fail to acquire or lose puck-possession.

The results of these statistics give Subban the highest risk/reward of any Montreal Canadiens player with more than 20 games played this season. His overall ratio of 2.51 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is behind only Josh Gorges.


OFFENSIVE-ZONE

Subban has the second-highest offensive-zone risk/reward rating among Canadiens defensemen; behind only Tomas Kaberle. He's won 67% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, and completed 64% of his attempted passes. He's extended o-zone pressure by recovering 88 loose-pucks in the offensive-zone, and has been successful with 79% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (dekes). He's intercepted or blocked 66 opposition passes or dump-outs in the offensive-zone, while getting 49% of his attempted shots through to the net.


NEUTRAL-ZONE

Risk taker?

Subban has the highest neutral-zone risk/reward rating among Canadiens defensemen, while his neutral-zone ratio is an incredible 4.11 (yes 4.11!) successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He's won only 49% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, but has completed 77% of his n-zone pass-attempts, and has a success-rate when attempting to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone of 87%. He's found success with 93% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (dekes), and has intercepted 27 opposition passes in the neutral-zone.


DEFENSIVE-ZONE

Liability?

PK Subban has the best defensive-zone risk/reward rating on the Montreal Canadiens, and has a defensive-zone ratio of 2.37 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He's won only 46% of his defensive-zone puck-battles, but has completed 76% of his defensive-zone pass-attempts. Despite the focus on some ugly turnovers, Subban is successful with 75% of his attempts to safely dump the puck out of the defensive-zone; far-and-away the best success-rate of any Montreal player.  He's also blocked 70 shots and intercepted 129 opposition passes.

PK Subban is not infallible. He is not the second coming. He is not superman. He is simply the most involved, most influential, and most successful skater on the current Montreal Canadiens roster.

Did I mention he was 22-years-old?

Big Part of Habs League-leading PK Unit Available via Trade

Three players on PK-unit UFA at season's end

The Montreal Canadiens' most valuable players moving toward the trade deadline may be those players carrying the league-leading Montreal Canadiens penalty-killing unit.

Travis Moen, Matthieu Darche, and Hal Gill are big pieces of the unit. Gill has the second-highest amount of short-handed ice-time on the roster, while Moen has the second-most among forwards. Darche has played substantially less than the other 2 players, but has seen his PK ice-time increase with the absence of Gionta and Nokelainen.

Among penalty-killing regulars who play forward, Travis Moen has the second-best short-handed ratio; Moen makes 1.90 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He also has the second-best short-handed risk/reward rating among forwards. He's won 63% of his d-zone puck-battles short-handed, and has completed 86% of his d-zone pass-attempts while short-handed. Only Tomas Plekanec has more successful dump-outs.

Darche has the best defensive-zone short-handed risk/reward rating among forwards. He's won 43% of his d-zone puck-battles, and has completed  83% of his d-zone pass-attempts. He averages more short-handed blocked-shots per-minute played than any other forward, and has completed 21 of 25 attempted dump-outs.


Gill has the third-best short-handed risk/reward of any Montreal player, as well as the third-best short-handed ratio. He's won 59% of his d-zone puck-battles, and has recovered 86 defensive-zone pucks while killing penalties. Only Josh Gorges has blocked more shorts or intercepted more opposition passes in the d-zone than Gill.

Contact-status may make the bulk of the NHL's league-leading penalty-killing unit available via trade, while PK success may allow Moen, Darche and Gill to help the Montreal Canadiens organization improve itself moving forward.

Hal Gill: By the Numbers

Montreal Canadiens defenseman Hal Gill will most-likely be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. The 36-year-old giant has seen his even-strength ice-time drop significantly under Randy Cunneyworth. The chances of Gill being moved to a playoff-bound team seem more and more likely with each passing game.

Gill has already nearly equalled his offensive output from last season, and is on pace for his largest point-total since the 2007-08 season. Obviously, this is nothing more than an interesting tidbit, but worth mentioning none-the-less.

Gill has the second-lowest overall grade (69) among Canadiens defensemen this season; equalling rookies Alexei Emelin and Raphael Diaz. Thankfully, his incredible work killing penalties has carried his overall risk/reward rating (1.38) to sixth-best among defensemen who played with the Habs this season; equalling the team average (1.38).

At even-strength, Gill has the 5th-best risk/reward rating among defensemen (1.37). As expected his best rating comes from his work in the defensive-zone. His overall even-strength ratio of 2.17 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is slightly better than the team-average of 2.02.

His offensive-zone risk/reward rating (0.13) at even-strength is better than both Yannick Weber and Raphael Diaz, and just below Emelin's. Understandably, his o-zone ratio of 1.58 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle is lower than the team-average of 1.63.

In the defensive-zone, Gill has the fifth-best risk/reward rating (0.97) while playing at even-strength. Substantially better than Weber, Emelin, Diaz and Frederic St. Denis, and just slightly below Josh Gorges. His d-zone ratio of 2.18 is slightly better than the team average of 2.13.

His neutral-zone risk/reward rating (0.26) is seventh-best among the team's d-men. Lower than Emelin, Gorges, Tomas Kaberle, Chris Campoli and PK Subban, but better than Weber and Diaz. His neutral-zone ratio is 2.95 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle, and is well above the team-average.

The only player with more short-handed ice-time than Gill is Gorges. Among defensemen with substantial PK minutes, only Raphael Diaz has a better short-handed risk/reward than Gill's rating of 1.14. Gill has the most successful short-handed dump-outs, the second-most blocked shots, and the second-most blocked passes. He's recovered the second-most loose-pucks in the defensive-zone, and has won the most short-handed puck-battles.

Gill has the fourth-best success-rate (72%) among defensemen when engaging in plays that require him to remove or acquire puck-possession from the opposition. Plays within this category include puck-battles, blocked-shots, and blocked passes, etc. He has the eighth-best success-rate (66%) among d-men when engaging in plays that require him to maintain puck-possession. These plays included pass-attempts, etc.

Hal Gill's greatest strength is his work killing-penalties. He is a huge part of the reason the Canadiens have the top penalty-killing success-rate in the NHL. If the end is coming for Gill in Montreal, the likely trading partner will be a playoff-bound team with a struggling penalty-killing unit. The Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks showed during last-year's playoffs that a dominating PK unit is not necessary for playoff success. That said, a struggling PK unit is a recipe for an early playoff exit.

Desharnais and Plekanec: Plek's taking one for the team

Line-mates and line-matching huge part of Desharnais' success


David Desharnais has come into his own as an NHL player this season; scoring 7 goals and adding 24 assists. He is a player perceived by some as the new number 1 centre on the Montreal Canadiens, while Tomas Plekanec is thought to be having a difficult year.

The truth is always somewhere in the middle; the law of averages demand this.

Both players have the same amount of points this season. Desharnais, however has a much better traditional plus/minus. Desharnais has enjoyed the luxury of playing with two solid wingers for much of the season, while injuries to other players have seen Plekanec being flanked by a revolving door of wingers.

Examining home and away scoring we see that Plekanec actually has more points on the road than Desharnais, and a similar plus/minus. Desharnais home scoring is better than Plekanec, while his plus/minus is substantially better at the Bell Centre.

The plus/minus is the key to the explanation. Not because it's a solid individual statistic, but because it's a solid representation of the strength of opponent players are facing on a given night. At home, the Montreal Canadiens have the last change. This allows the coaching staff the luxury of (for the most part) picking which players play against whom. Tomas Plekanec consistently faces the opposition's best players at home, thereby allowing Desharnais to play against lesser opponents. As a result, Desharnais produces more offense at home.

Desharnias' linemates for most of the season have been the Canadiens two-best offensive-performers. Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty have combined for 32 goals this season. This is both a benefit to, and a product of Desharnais. By comparison, if we combine the goal totals of all the wingers left to play with Plekanec, we have a total of 34 goals.

Looking deeper into each player's individual statistics, we see that Plekanec (1.61) has a better overall risk/reward than Desharnais(1.29). Both players have solid even-strength ratios. Plekanec produces 2.05 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle, while Desharnais produces 1.95 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle.

Plekanec has a 67% success-rate for plays that require him to maintain puck-possession, while Desharnais is successful with 65% of plays that require him to maintain puck-possession. During plays that require them to remove or acquire puck-possession from the opposition, Plekanec's success-rate is 69%, while Desharnais' is 68%. 

Forty-two percent of the events Plekeanec is involved in occur in the offensive-zone, while 36% occur in the defensive, and 22% in the neutral-zone. Forty-five percent of the events Desharnais is involved in occur in the offensive-zone, while 35% occur in the defensive, and 20% in the neutral-zone.



EVEN-STRENGTH OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD

Plekanec 0.45
At even-strength, number 14 wins 44% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, completes 60% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts, and beats opponents with 67% of his attempted dekes. Also, 57% of Plekanec's shot-attempts are on-net.

In terms of positioning, Plekanec recovers 0.29 loose-pucks in the offensive-zone for every minute of ice-time. He has also intercepted 47 opposition passes in the offensive-zone

 Desharnias 0.39
At even strength, number 51 wins 46% of his offensive-zone puck-battles, completes 65% of his offensive-zone pass-attempts, and beats opponents with 55% of his attempted dekes. Also, 53% of Desharnais' shot-attempts are on-net.

In terms of positioning, Desharnais recovers 0.25 loose-pucks in the offensive-zone for every minute of ice-time. He has also intercepted 42 opposition passes


EVEN-STRENGTH DEFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD

Plekanec 0.45
At even strength, Plekanec wins 50% of his defensive-zone puck-battles, and  completes 65% of his defensive-zone pass-attempts.

In terms of positioning, Plekanec recovers 0.30 loose-pucks in the defensive-zone for every minute of ice-time.  He has also intercepted 42 opposition passes in the defensive-zone, while blocking 24 opposition shots.

Desharnais 0.43
At even-strength, Desharnias wins 52% of his defensive-zone puck-battles, and completes 73% of his defensive-zone pass-attempts.

In terms of positioning, Desharnais recovers 0.24 loose-pucks in the defensive-zone for every minute of ice-time. He has also intercepted 48 opposition passes, while blocking 24 shots

EVEN-STRENGTH NEUTRAL-ZONE RISK/REWARD

Plekanec 0.43
At even strength, Plekanec wins 44% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, and completes 82% of his neutral-zone pass-attempts. He has been successful with 84% of his attempts to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone.

In terms of positioning, Plekanec recovers 0.11 loose-pucks in the neutral-zone for every minute of ice-time. He has also intercepted 30 opposition passes.

Desharnais 0.22
At even-strength, Desharnais wins 59% of his neutral-zone puck-battles, and completes 69% of his neutral-zone pass-attempts. He has been successful with 69% of his attempts to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone.  

In terms of positioning, Desharnais recovers 0.20 loose-pucks in the neutral-zone for every minute of ice-time. He has also intercepted 26 opposition passes.

Montreal Canadiens Depth Chart

Montreal Canadiens depth chart (10-MARCH-2012)

FOR PLAYERS WHO HAVE PLAYED IN THE NHL DURING THE 2011-12 SEASON, THE NUMBERS IN PARENTHESES ARE FROM THIS SEASON

The first number in parentheses is the player's EVEN-STRENGTH ratio of successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. The second number is their even-strength risk/reward rating. All grades are from games played in the NHL; unless otherwise indicated.

For players with grades from games played outside the NHL, the first letter indicates the league where their grade was achieved. THESE NUMBERS ARE FROM LAST SEASON.

2011/2012
	FORWARDS
PACIORETTY (2.12)  (1.48)	DESHARNAIS (2.15)  (1.28)	COLE (1.84)  (1.06)
BOURQUE (1.53) (0.67)	PLEKANEC (2.21)  (1.44)	GIONTA (2.00)  (1.23)
DARCHE (2.09)  (1.26)	ELLER (2.08)  (1.53)	WHITE (1.96)  (1.03)
MOEN (1.82)  (0.88)	GOMEZ (1.92)  (1.32)	LEBLANC (1.68) (0.88)
GEOFFRION (1.90) (1.14)	NOKELAINEN (1.65) (0.82)	PALUSHAJ (1.80)  (1.18)
		STAUBITZ (0.97 (-0.04)
		BLUNDEN (1.60)  (0.72)
MASSE	ENGQVIST (1.82)  (1.11)	WILLSIE
BISHOP	NATTINEN	AVTSIN (A) (65) (0.64)
LEFEBVRE (Q) (61)  (0.83)	FORTIER	DUMONT
CONBOY		SCHULTZ
BERGER (O) (73)  (2.13)
QUAILER	BOURNIVAL (Q+) (70) (1.74)	KRISTO
ARCHAMBAULT (Q) (62)  (1.24)	WALSH	GALLAGHER (W+) (65)  (1.31)
MACMILLAN	PRIBYL	HOLLAND
TRUNEV	CICHY	PEREZHOGIN
WESTIN
	DEFENSEMEN
GORGES (2.58)  (1.39)		SUBBAN (2.48)  (1.79)
MARKOV* (70)  (1.45)		YEMELIN (1.98)  (1.15)
KABERLE (2.76) (1.82)		CAMPOLI (2.22) (1.37)
		WEBER (2.16)  (1.39)
		DIAZ (2.02) (1.19)
ST. DENIS (2.15) (1.25)		HENRY
MITERA (A) (75)  (1.71)		STEJSKAL
NASH* (54)  (0.25)		DIDIER
BEAULIEU (Q+) (72)  (1.81)		NYGREN
TINORDI (O+) (64)  (1.17)		ELLIS (Q) (69)  (1.63)
BENNETT (U) (73)  (0.90)		DIETZ (W) (68)  (0.93)
KORNEEV** (80)  (2.10)		PATERYN (U) (71)  (1.13)
KISHEL		SULLIVAN
	GOALIES
	PRICE (.914)
	BUDAJ (.901)
	LAWSON (A) (.913)
	MAYER (A) (.890)
	DELMAS (E) (.928)

Ranking by offensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage

Ranking by defensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage

Ranking by offensive-zone passing-percentage

Ranking by defensive-zone passing-percentage


 * = LIMITED GAMES IN NHL 
** = WORLD HOCKEY CHAMPIONSHIP
(A) = AHL
(E) = ECHL
(O) = OHL
(O+) = OHL PLUS USA WORLD JUNIOR EVALUATION CAMP
(Q) = QMJHL
(Q+) = QMJHL PLUS CANADIAN WORLD JUNIOR EVALUATION CAMP
(U) = NCAA
(W) = WHL
(W+) = WHL PLUS CANADIAN WORLD JUNIOR EVALUATION CAMP

The Ten and Thirty-goal Scorer Rule

The anatomy of a winning team

The keys to building a winning hockey team can be found in studying the anatomy of past hockey teams that have had success. It isn't just one facet of each team that allowed it to be successful, but rather a combination of different pieces to that ever-elusive puzzle.

Yes, defense wins championships. I do not venture to argue against that statement. In fact, I will write a piece in the future focusing on just that aspect. That said, the basic goal in every hockey game is to score more goals than the opposition. But, how many goal scorers does it take? How many 30-goal scorers does it take? How many 10-goal scorers does it take?




MAKING THE PLAYOFFS

The Superstar

The salary-cap has created a situation where teams are limited in the number of established 40-goal scorers they can have on their team. The ability for a team to have multiple 40-goal scorers on their rosters are restricted by such factors as salary-arbitration, free-agency, and of course self-imposed team-budgets.

Researching the past 4 seasons, I found that 27 teams have had one player with at least 40 goals. Of those 27 teams, nineteen have made the playoffs. Expressed differently, this shows that 70% of teams with a 40-goal scorer have made the playoffs.


The Star

General Managers also have to make a decision as to how to spend their money. Do you want multiple 30-goal scorers instead of a single $7 Million superstar?

Researching the past 4 seasons, we find that 35 teams have had a minimum of two players with at least 30 goals. Of those 35 teams, twenty-seven have made the playoffs. This shows us that 77% of teams with at least two 30-goal scorers have made the playoffs.


The Top-6 Forward

Teams with depth win. Injuries, are a huge part of every NHL season. The ability to have multiple players with the ability to score goals and fill in can be the difference between making the playoffs, or participating in  the draft-lottery.

Over the past 4 seasons, sixty teams have had a minimum of 4 player with at least 20-goals. Of those 60 teams, forty have made the playoffs. In other words, 67% of teams with at least four 20-goal scorers have made the playoffs.


The Third and Fourth-liner with Offensive-Upside

Teams fill out their roster with players making the minimum salary. The decision they have to make is whether to fill that spot with a warm-body, an enforcer, or a young player with offensive-upside?

Over the past 4 seasons, 58 teams have had a minimum of ten players with at least 10-goals. Of those 58 teams, forty-one have made the playoffs. Expressed differently, this shows that 71% of teams with at least ten 10-goal scorers have made the playoffs.

On the other side of the coin, only 23 of 62 teams without at least ten 10-goal scorers have made the playoffs over the last 4 seasons. In other words, only 37% of teams without at least ten 10-goal scorers have participated in the playoffs. 


Combination With the Best Odds

The past four seasons have shown that the combination with the best odds of making the playoffs consists of at least two 30-goal scorers among at least ten 10-goal scorers. Over the past four seasons, only one of the sixteen teams with that combination missed the playoffs. In other words, 94% teams with this combination have participated in the playoffs.



SUCCESS IN THE PLAYOFFS

My "ten 10-goal scorer rule" also translates to the playoffs. Without depth, teams just don't advance in the playoffs. Data from the last 4 Stanley Cup Playoffs prove this.

Only 4 of the 16 teams that have made it through to the third round of the playoffs have not included at least ten players with a minimum of 10-goals during the regular season. To further the matter, no team has played in the Finals without having had at least ten 10-goal scorers during the regular season.


This study is still in its early stages. In this article I shared the data I've gathered to date, as well as my early findings. Keep in mind, this is only 1 piece to the puzzle, and is not meant as the complete answer in regards to building a winning hockey team. The greatest challenge remains fitting this combination into a team budget.

Edit: I oversimplified the math when trying to express the results as simply as possible. Adjustments have been made. 

Another 1-game scouting report for Filip Forsberg and Sebastian Collberg

Sweden's Filip Forsberg and Sebastian Collberg are both projected first round draft picks in the upcoming 2012 NHL draft. Forsberg is a 6'1", 176 lbs left-winger who mostly plays the right side. Collberg is a 5'11, 174 lbs right-winger who shoots from the right-side. This report is from Sweden's 3-2 shootout win over Finland on January 3rd, 2012.

Forsberg is a great puck-moving forward who has loads of flair. He also has the confidence to make solid plays while carrying the puck through the neutral-zone. He's played 10 games in the Swedish Elite League this season, scoring 1 goal. Collberg is more of an offensive-dynamo, who plays his best in the offensive-zone thanks to an impressive, "nose for the net". He's played 5 games in the Swedish Elite League this season, but has yet to produce offensively.


Both players produced below-average grades in the game scouted. The Swedish coach shortened his bench as the game progressed, keeping the younger forwards on the bench in order to play his older offensive-players.

#15 = COLLBERG
#16 = FORSBERG


OVERALL GRADE


Neither prospect produced any offense, or shots during the game. Forsberg's grade was also hurt by a minus-1 traditional plus/minus rating. As mentioned earlier, ice-time was limited in the game.

	15	16
WINS	13	21	WINS
EVENTS	22	38	EVENTS
GRADE	59	55	GRADE
PLAYER	15	16

OVERALL RISK/REWARD RATING


Forsberg was more involved in the play, as he produced nearly twice as many events as Collberg. This is an accurate reflection of the players, as Forsberg is more of a puck-carrier, while Collberg is more of an offensive-specialist with finishing ability.

Collberg had a overall risk/reward rating of 0.43 and an overall ratio of 1.44 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. As per usual, his best work was done in the offensive-zone. Forsberg had an overall risk/reward rating of 0.57, to go along with an overall ratio of 1.29 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. Forsberg struggled in all zones; his overall rating was saved by his work on the powerplay.

	15	16
POS	13	22	POS
NEG	9	17	NEG
RATIO	1.44	1.29	RATIO
MIN/G	9.2	8.7	MIN/G
	15	16
MINUTES	9	9	MINUTES
POS/MIN	1.41	2.53	POS/MIN
NEG/MIN	0.98	1.95	NEG/MIN
	15	16
EVENTS/ MIN	2.39	4.48	EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD	0.43	0.57	RISK/REWARD
	15	16

OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING


Collberg had far-and-away the better offensive-zone risk/reward rating. His 0.65 offensive-zone risk/reward rating was well above Forsberg's rating, as was his o-zone ratio of 2.50 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. Collberg recovered 4 loose-pucks in the offensive-zone, completed both of his attempted passes, and was able to beat opposing players 1on1 (deke) with 2 of his 3 attempts.


Forsberg had a negative offensive-zone risk/reward rating. This is unusual for Forsberg, as he usually demonstrates impressive offensive-flair. His offensive-zone risk/reward rating was -0.23, while his o-zone ratio was 0.83 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. Expressed differently, these numbers show that Forsberg made more unsuccessful plays than successful plays in the offensive-zone.

	15	16
OZ POS	10	10	OZ POS
OZ NEG	4	12	OZ NEG
RATIO	2.50	0.83	RATIO
MIN/G	9.2	8.7	MIN/G
	15	16
MINUTES	9	9	MINUTES
POS/MIN	1.09	1.15	POS/MIN
NEG/MIN	0.43	1.38	NEG/MIN
	15	16
EVENTS/ MIN	1.52	2.53	EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD	0.65	-0.23	RISK/REWARD
	15	16

DEFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING


Forsberg had a defensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.23, and a d-zone ratio of 1.6 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He lost his only d-zone puck-battle, and completed 2 of 3 d-zone pass-attempts. He also beat 2 opposing players 1on1 (deke).


Collberg had a defensive-zone risk/reward rating of -0.11 and a d-zone ratio of 0.50. Expressed differently, this shows that Collberg made more unsuccessful than successful plays for his team in the defensive-zone.

	15	16
DZ POS	1	5	DZ POS
DZ NEG	2	3	DZ NEG
RATIO	0.50	1.67	RATIO
MIN/G	9.2	8.7	MIN/G
	15	16
MINUTES	9	9	MINUTES
POS/MIN	0.11	0.57	POS/MIN
NEG/MIN	0.22	0.34	NEG/MIN
	15	16
EVENTS/ MIN	0.33	0.92	EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD	-0.11	0.23	RISK/REWARD
	15	16

NEUTRAL-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING


Both players struggled in the neutral-zone. Collberg had a neutral-zone risk/reward rating of -0.22 and a neutral-zone ratio of 0.5 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He lost his only n-zone puck-battle and wasn't able to complete his only pass-attempt.


Forsberg had a neutral-zone risk/reward rating of -0.23 and a neutral-zone ratio of .033 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He lost his only n-zone puck-battle. These numbers show that both prospects made more unsuccessful than successful plays in the neutral-zone.

	15	16
NZ POS	2	1	NZ POS
NZ NEG	4	3	NZ NEG
RATIO	0.50	0.33	RATIO
MIN/G	9.2	8.7	MIN/G
	15	16
MINUTES	9	9	MINUTES
POS/MIN	0.22	0.11	POS/MIN
NEG/MIN	0.43	0.34	NEG/MIN
	15	16
EV/ MIN	0.65	0.46	EV/ MIN
RISK/REWARD	-0.22	-0.23	RISK/REWARD
	15	16

POWERPLAY RISK/REWARD RATING


Both players were used on the powerplay, although neither were used on the penalty-kill.


Forsberg had an impressive powerplay risk/reward rating of 6.67 to go along with a PP ratio of 5 successful plays for every 1 mistake or lost puck-battle. He won his only PP puck-battle, recovered 3 loose-pucks and completed all 3 of his attempted passes. He carried the powerplay while on the ice, producing an amazing 10 events per minute of powerplay ice-time.


Collberg had a PP risk/reward rating of 1.67. All his PP events were successful, as he recovered 1 loose-puck, and beat an opposing player 1on1 (deke).

	15	16
POS	2	10	POS
NEG	0	2	NEG
RATIO	N/A	5	RATIO
MIN/G	1.2	1.2	MIN/G
	15	16
MINUTES	1	1	MINUTES
POS/MIN	1.67	8.33	POS/MIN
NEG/MIN	0.00	1.67	NEG/MIN
	15	16
EVENTS/ MIN	1.67	10.00	EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD	1.67	6.67	RISK/REWARD
	15	16