Wednesday, May 30, 2012

HABS: Individual Player Offensive-zone Ratios

Ratios are basic expressions of how well players perform. It is simply a measurement of how many successful puck-possession plays a player makes for every 1 unsuccessful puck-possession play.  A successful or unsuccessful event could be anything from a completed pass to a lost puck-battle. Simply put, the higher a player's ratio, the more that player helps his team maintain or acquire possession of the puck.

The graph below is a visual representations of the offensive-zone ratios produced by every player who played for the Montreal Canadiens during the 2011-12 season.

As with all statistics, the larger the pool of data the more reflective the data becomes. Ratios are no exception. In fact, I believe (with this large pool of data) ratios have become one of the most important expressions of how well players perform. 

ONLY even-strength events are included in this calculation.


OFFENSIVE-ZONE

Tomas Kaberle has the best offensive-zone ratio of any Montreal player. Kaberle makes 2.02 successful plays in the offensive-zone for every 1 unsuccessful play. His ratio is the product of a high offensive-zone passing success-rate, as well as an ability to get shots through to the net.

Andrei Markov has the second-highest offensive-zone ratio. Markov makes 2 successful plays in the offensive-zone for every 1 unsuccessful play. His ratio is the product of a high offensive-zone puck-battle success-rate, and an ability to complete o-zone passes.

PK Subban is the only other defenseman with an o-zone ratio above 1.76. Subban's ratio of 1.94 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is the product of a high passing-percentage, and an ability to beat players 1on1.

Yannick Weber and Raphael Diaz are the only d-men with o-zone ratios below 1.50. Both players biggest struggles occurred when attempting to get shots through to the net. Weber was successful with only 32% of his shot-attempts, while Diaz was only able to get 29% of his shots through to the net. That said, Diaz actually produced the highest offensive-zone passing success-rate on the entire team (71%).

Among forwards, the highest offensive-zone ratio belonged to Ryan White. He made 1.87 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His high ratio was the product of a an impressive o-zone puck-battle winning-percentage.

Other forwards with offensive-zone ratios above 1.69 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play include Max Pacioretty (1.78), Louis Leblanc (1.75), Mathieu Darche (1.72), David Desharnais (1.71), and Tomas Plekanec (1.69).

Pacioretty's high ratio is the product of a high o-zone puck-battle winning-percentage and an ability to get shots through to the net. Leblanc, Darche and Plekenec were also successful getting shot through to the net. Desharnais was simply the Habs most successful passer (among forwards).

The lowest offensive-zone ratio belonged to Blake Geoffrion. He produced only 1.29 successful plays in the offensive-zone for every unsuccessful play. Geoffrion struggled getting shots on net, as only 32% of his attempted shots made it through. He was also only successful with 22% of his attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (deke).

Other forward with offensive-zone ratios at, or below 1.50 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play include; Andrei Kostitsyn (1.50), Andreas Engqvist (1.43), Michael Blunden (1.43), Petteri Nokelainen (1.41), Brad Staubitz (1.40), Gabriel Dumont (1.36), and Rene Bourque (1.35). Bourque won only 44% of his o-zone puck-battles, while each of the other players also struggled winning puck-battles, and beating players 1on1 (deke).






NHL Draft: One-game Scouting Report for Radek Faksa and Max Iafrate


Radek Faksa (#16) is the CSB's 7th ranked North American skater. He's a 6'3", 202 lbs left-handed forward with an impressive defensive-game. He can also add some offense, as he scored 29 goals and added 37 assists in 62 games with the OHL's Kitchener Rangers.

Max Iafrate (#34) is Central Scouting's 70th-ranked North American skater. His ice-time is limited, as he plays behind junior phenom, and fellow Kitchener Ranger; Ryan Murphy. Iafrate scored 6 goals, and added 10 assists through 62 games. The 6'2", 220 lbs right-handed defenseman also added 97 minutes in penalties.

This one-game scouting report is from an April 22nd game against the London Knights.

OVERALL GRADE

Iafrate (#34) had a below-average overall grade of 64. He had no points, no shots on goal, and a minus-2 traditional plus/minus. He focused on defense the entire game, as 84% of his events took place in the defensive-zone.

Faksa (94) earned an above-average overall grade of 73.  He had no points, a minus-1 traditional plus/minus rating, and 4 shots on goal. Sixty-three percent of his events took place in the offensive-zone.


34
94

WINS
18
58
WINS
EVENTS
28
80
EVENTS
GRADE
64
73
GRADE
PLAYER
34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK


EVEN-STRENGTH RISK/REWARD RATING AND RATIO

Iafrate (#34) earned an even-strength risk/reward rating of 0.70, and an even-strength ratio of 1.78 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His best numbers were produced in the defensive-zone and on the powerplay. He engaged in 2.51 even-strength events per-minute played.

Faksa (#94) had an even-strength risk/reward rating of 1.28, and an ES ratio of 2.06 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. His best numbers were produced in the offensive-zone and while on the powerplay. He engaged in 3.69 even-strength events per-minute played.


34
94

POS
16
35
POS
NEG
9
17
NEG
RATIO
1.78
2.06
RATIO

34
94

POS/MIN
1.61
2.48
POS/MIN
NEG/MIN
0.90
1.20
NEG/MIN

34
94

EVENTS/ MIN
2.51
3.69
EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD
0.70
1.28
RISK/REWARD

34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK



OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING AND RATIO

Iafrrate (#34) was successful with both of his offensive-zone events. He recovered 1 loose-puck, and completed his only pass-attempts. He engaged in 0.20 offensive-zone events per-minute played.

Faksa (#94) produced an above-average offensive-zone risk/reward rating of  0.78, and an offensive-zone ratio of 2 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.  He won his only offensive-zone puck-battle and recovered 9 loose-pucks. He completed only 2 of his 8 passes, but was successful with 5 of his 6 attempts to beat opposing players 1on1 (deke). He was able to get 4 of his 5 shots through to the net, and engaged in 2.34 offensive-zone events per-minute of ice-time.


34
94

OZ POS
2
22
OZ POS
OZ NEG
0
11
OZ NEG
RATIO
N/A
2.0
RATIO

34
94

POS/MIN
0.20
1.56
POS/MIN
NEG/MIN
0.00
0.78
NEG/MIN

34
94

EVENTS/ MIN
0.20
2.34
EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD
0.20
0.78
RISK/REWARD

34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK



DEFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING AND RATIO

Iafrate (#34) had a defensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.30, and a d-zone ratio of 1.33 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He lost both his puck-battles, and recovered 4 loose-pucks. He completed 5 of 10 defensive-zone pass-attempts, blocked 2 shots, and engaged in 2.11 d-zone events per-minute played.

Faksa (#94) earned a defensive-zone risk/reward rating of 0.43, and an impressive d-zone ratio of 3 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won 1 of 3 defensive-zone puck-battles, recovered 4 loose-pucks,and completed each of his 4 d-zone pass-attempts. He engaged in 0.85 defensive-zone events per-minute played.


34
94

DZ POS
12
9
DZ POS
DZ NEG
9
3
DZ NEG
RATIO
1.33
3.00
RATIO

34
94

POS/MIN
1.20
0.64
POS/MIN
NEG/MIN
0.90
0.21
NEG/MIN

34
94

EVENTS/ MIN
2.11
0.85
EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD
0.30
0.43
RISK/REWARD

34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK



NEUTRAL-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING AND RATIO

Iafrate (#34) was successful with both of his neutral-zone events. He recovered 1 loose-puck, and completed his only attempt to dump the puck deep into the offensive-zone. He engaged in 0.20 neutral-zone events per-minute played.

Faksa (#94) earned a low neutral-zone risk/reward rating of 0.07, and a neutral-zone ratio of 1.33 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He won 1of 2 puck-battles, recovered 2 loose-pucks, but was not able to completed his only neutral-zone pass-attempts. He engaged in 0.50 neutral-zone events per-minute played.


34
94

NZ POS
2
4
NZ POS
NZ NEG
0
3
NZ NEG
RATIO
N/A
1.33
RATIO

34
94

POS/MIN
0.20
0.28
POS/MIN
NEG/MIN
0.00
0.21
NEG/MIN

34
94

EV/ MIN
0.20
0.50
EV/ MIN
RISK/REWARD
0.20
0.07
RISK/REWARD

34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK



POWERPLAY RISK/REWARD RATING AND RATIO

Iafrate (#34) was successful with each of his 4 powerplay events. He recovered 1 loose-puck, and was successful with his only pass. That said, none of his 4 powerplay events took place in the offensive-zone.

Faksa(#94) earned a powerplay risk/reward rating of 2.38, and a powerplay ratio of 4 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play. He recovered 4 loose-pucks, and completed each of his 10 passes (6 in the offensive-zone).  He engaged in 4.30 powerplay events per-minute played; Eighty-percent of which took place in the offensive-zone. 


34
94

POS
4
20
POS
NEG
0
5
NEG
RATIO
N/A
4.00
RATIO

34
94

POS/MIN
2.41
3.44
POS/MIN
NEG/MIN
0.00
0.86
NEG/MIN

34
94

EVENTS/ MIN
2.41
4.30
EVENTS/ MIN
RISK/REWARD
2.41
2.58
RISK/REWARD

34
94

CSB RANK
70
7
CSB RANK