HABS: Quantifying Penalty-killing success among Habs AHL Prospects

 Ellis the most-successful Hamilton penalty-killer

Teams playing short-handed tend to engage in  a limited amount of events. Due to this, penalty-killing is among the most difficult aspects of a player's performance to quantify.

Tracking every puck-possession event allows us to show how often a player successfully impacts the play. The graph below is a visual representation of the number of times per-minute played each Canadiens prospect either blocks a shot, intercepts a pass, recovers a loose-puck, or dumps the puck out of the defensive-zone.

It is important to keep in mind that only 9 of the players included in this graph have played more than 10 total short-handed minutes in the games tracked. Those players include Greg Pateryn, Antoine Corbin, Jarred Tinordi, Fred St. Denis, Morgan Ellis, Alain Berger, Michael Blunden, Michael Bournival, and Gabriel Dumont.

Among these players, Ellis produces the most successful short-handed plays per-minute played (2.5). No other defenseman produces more than 2 successful short-handed plays per-minute played. Pateryn has produced the fewest successful short-handed plays per-minute, but has the most loose-puck recoveries outside of Ellis.

Ellis has also produced the most dump-outs, while Tinordi has blocked the most shots.

Among forwards with ore than 10 total short-handed minutes, Dumont has produced the most successful short-handed plays per-minute. Bournival is the only other forward with at-least 1 successful short-handed play per-minute.

Bournival has recovered the most loose-pucks, while Dumont has blocked the most shots, intercepted the most passes, and completed the most dump-outs.

HABS: Holland showing strong offensive-zone possession numbers

Patrick Holland has yet to put up any big offensive-numbers, and has seen his powerplay ice-time fall. That said, he continues to produce well above-average offensive-zone possession numbers, to go along with a forechecking success-rate of 86%.

Holland is less involved than the average Hamilton forward. Engaging in 1.368 offensive-zone events per-minute played compared to the average for Bulldogs' forwards of 1.674. He also blocks fewer opposition passes, and recovers less loose-pucks per-minute played (in the offensive-zone) than average.

Where Holland's play becomes impressive is when we look at his success-rates. He has a strong stick, and is successful with 86.7% of his offensive-zone puck-battles. He is also successful with 87.9% of his attempts to remove or acquire puck-possession in the offensive-zone.

In terms of puck-possession, Holland's numbers are consistently above-average. He is successful with 64.4% of his attempts to maintain puck-possession in the offensive-zone. This high success-rate is the product of a 70.5%  success-rate when attempting a pass in the offensive-zone, and a 73.7% success-rate for offensive-zone deke attempts.(team and forward averages are included below)

His 48.1% success-rate when attempting to get a shot through to the net shows that he attempts more shots than the average Hamilton forward, but gets fewer shots through. He has also produced a true shooting-percentage of 3.7%. This means that 3.7% of Holland's attempted shots result in a goal.

OFFENSIVE-ZONE TENDENCIES

When in possession of the puck in the offensive-zone, Holland's most-likely chosen play is a pass. He has chosen this option 49% of the time he has had possession of the puck in the offensive-zone. His next most likely play is a shot, which he's chosen 30% of the time. He's chosen to attempt a shot on net with 21% of his puck-possession events.

In comparison to other Hamilton forwards, Holland is the third most-likely to pass, and the third least-likely to shoot.

#37 HOLLAND
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH)	YEAR-TO-DATE TEAM AVG.	FORWARDS YEAR-TO-DATE	HOLLAND   YEAR-TO-DATE
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING	0.32	0.48	0.63
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS)	1.74	1.80	2.73
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES	0.279	0.415	0.321
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE /MP	73.1%	69.7%	86.7%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP	1.180	1.674	1.368
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE	78.1%	78.3%	87.9%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP	0.049	0.055	0.018
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP	0.329	0.464	0.532
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE	51.8%	53.5%	64.4%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP	0.274	0.413	0.404
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP	0.152	0.224	0.285
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE	55.7%	54.3%	70.5%
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES	0.123	0.225	0.174
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES	0.061	0.109	0.129
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE	49.7%	48.4%	73.7%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP	0.239	0.230	0.248
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP	0.116	0.131	0.119
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE	48.4%	57.0%	48.1%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS)	3.5%	4.5%	3.7%