Saturday, March 16, 2013

HABS Lars Eller; by the numbers (2012-13)

Comparing 2013 numbers with 2011-12

Montreal Canadiens forward Lars Eller has increased the amount of offensive-zone events he engages in per-minute played, while decreasing the amount of defensive-zone events. He has substantially improved his numbers in the offensive-zone, while maintaining his already-impressive play in the defensive-zone.

  • Overall ratio of 2.52 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is second-best among Canadiens centremen, and fourth-best among forwards.
  • Overall risk/reward rating of 1.90 is tops among Habs centremen and third-best among forwards.
  • Even-strength risk/reward rating of 1.83 is tops among forwards
  • Even-strength ratio of 2.32 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is tops among centremen, and fourth-best among forwards.
  • Powerplay ratio of 4.65 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play is tops among centremen, and third-best overall.
  • Short-handed ratio of 2.68 successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful plays is fourth-best among the six forward with substantial short-handed ice-time.
  • Takeaway to turnover ratio of 1.98 is only third-best among centremen, and eighth-best among forwards.
  • Scoring chance for/against ratio of 2.54 scoring chances for every 1 scoring chance against is second-best among centremen, and ninth-best among forwards. 

 OVERVIEW OF RATINGS AND RATIOS
81-ELLER
OVERALL RATIO
2.52
OVERALL RISK/REWARD RATING
1.90
ES RISK/REWARD RATING
1.83
ES RATIO
2.32
PP RATIO
4.65
SH RATIO
2.68
TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
1.98
SCORING CHANCE FOR/AGAINST RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
2.54



OFFENSIVE-ZONE

Eller has improved his play in the offensive-zone substantially. He is engaging in more offensive-zone events per-minute played, and has produced better success-rates across-the-board.

He has nearly doubled the amount of successful offensive-zone puck-possession plays he produces per-minute played, and has increased his offensive-zone puck-battle winning-percentage by 24 percentage-points.

His offensive-zone puck-possession success-rate has improved from 56.6% to 62.2%. This is due to  improved offensive-zone passing, and deking success-rates. Eller has also improved his success-rate when attempting to get shots through to the net; from 49.1% last season to 56.2% this year.

His true shooting percentage, which represents the percentage of attempted shots that result in goals has improved from 3.7% to 4.1%.

#81 ELLER
SCORING CHANCES FOR
N/A
33
CHANCES AGAINST
N/A
13
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH)
ELLER
2011-12
ELLER
2012-13
 
 
 
SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK/BATTLES PER-MINUTE
0.12
0.15
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING
0.30
0.80
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS)
1.64
2.14
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES 
0.250
0.488
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE /MP
49.8%
73.2%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP
1.237
2.209
FORECHECKING SUCCESS-RATE
71.1%
77.7%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP
0.062
0.087
 
 
 
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP
0.417
0.769
O-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE
56.6%
62.2%
DEFLECTIONS
N/A
0.15
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP
0.400
0.609
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP
0.243
0.390
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
60.7%
64.1%
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES
0.129
0.361
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES 
0.072
0.230
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
56.3%
63.6%
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP
0.208
0.266
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP
0.102
0.149
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE
49.1%
56.2%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS)
3.7%
4.1%
 
 
 


DEFENSIVE-ZONE

Last season Eller had the best defensive-zone risk/reward rating and ratio among Canadiens forwards; and he's improved on those numbers this season. (Tomas Plekenec's d-zone numbers have improved to the point where his 2013 d-zone numbers are actually tops among forwards)

Eller has engaged in fewer defensive-zone events per-minute played, likely thanks to a substantial increase in defensive success-rates. He's recovering more loose-pucks, and winning a higher-percentage of defensive-zone puck-battles.

His defensive-zone puck-possession success-rates are lower this season. This is the product of lower dump-out and deking success-rates, as his defensive-zone passing-percentage has actually improved 2.1 percentage-points.

#81 ELLER
DEFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH)
ELLER
2011-12
ELLER
2012-13
 
 
 
DEFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING
0.60
0.63
DEFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS)
2.12
2.67
DEFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES /MP
0.318
0.423
DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE
53.1%
71.8%
DEFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS /MP
1.68
1.38
DEFENDING IN D-ZONE SUCCESS-RATE/MP
68.3%
80.1%
INTERCEPTED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP
0.086
0.047
BLOCKED SHOTS /MP
0.065
0.029
 
 
 
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE PUCK POSSESSION PLAYS /MP
0.552
0.401
D-ZONE PUCK-POSSESSION SUCCESS-RATE
67.5%
64.0%
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE PASSES 
0.640
0.335
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE PASSES 
0.187
0.244
D-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
70.7%
72.8%
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE DEKES 
0.050
0.084
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE DEKES 
0.028
0.047
D-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
57.0%
56.5%
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED DUMP-OUTS 
0.109
0.186
DUMP-OUTS 
0.071
0.109
DUMP-OUTS SUCCESS-RATE
65.0%
58.8%
     

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