Friday, October 11, 2013

Desharnais' struggles quantified

David Desharnais' play has been under a microscope since he signed a contract extension. His play this season has been less than stellar, and the numbers included here speak to these struggles.

Both Desharnais' risk/reward ratings and his ratios show a player playing below last season's level. Not only has his ratio dropped below average, his play has created an anchor effect on the averages for centres this season.

Desharnais had put up the top possession numbers of any Montreal player in both 2011-12 and 2013. Through 4 games this season, his o-touch success-rate is 8 percentage-points below last year's level, and 5.6 percentage-points below the average produced by all of Montreal's centres last season.

His defensive-play can be quantified by his poor d-touch percentage. His 51.4% success-rate when attempting to remove puck-possession from the opposition this year is well below-average, and over 20 percentage-points below his rating last season.

Although there isn't much powerplay data this year, even his PP numbers are well below those produced last season.

Desharnais' scoring chance ratio is actually higher this season, but as I'll mention later; that improvement is the product of being involved in fewer scoring-chances against.


51-DESHARNAIS
RATINGS AND RATIOS
CENTRES  
 2012-13
CENTRES
 2013-14
DESHARNAIS   2012-13
DESHARNAIS   2013-14
 
24.02
22.55
26.84
18.72
OVERALL RATIO
2.53
2.15
2.53
1.89
OVERALL RISK/REWARD RATING
1.69
1.54
1.56
1.14
 
 
 
 
 
ES RATIO
2.30
2.08
2.32
1.95
ES RISK/REWARD RATING
1.59
1.56
1.45
1.26
 
 
 
 
 
ES OTOUCHES / MP
1.918
2.24
1.706
1.85
ES SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE TOUCH %
69.0%
57.9%
71.6%
63.4%
ES DTOUCHES / MP
0.734
0.781
0.693
0.738
ES SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCH %
72.5%
60.6%
71.6%
51.4%
 
 
 
 
 
PP RATIO
3.47
2.79
3.00
1.83
PP SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE TOUCH %
78.0%
72.0%
78.2%
68.4%
SH RATIO
2.36
2.11
5.00
0.67
SH SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCH %
59.1%
33.3%
100.0%
50.0%
 
 
 
 
 
TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
2.31
1.81
2.39
2.06
SCORING CHANCE FOR/AGAINST RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
2.34
3.25
2.97
3.00
         



As I mentioned, Desharnias scoring-chance ratio is high this season. That said, as evidenced here, he is actually helping to produce substantially fewer scoring chances per-minute played this season. It's the limited number of scoring chances he's been responsible for against, that has buoyed his scoring-chance ratio.

A quick comparison between the average amount of even-strength scoring chances produced per-minute played among Montreal centres, and the total produced by Desharnais is quite telling. 


51-DESHARNAIS
SCORING CHANCES FOR / MP
0.133
0.154
0.157
0.060
SCORING CHANCES AGAINST/MP
0.057
0.047
0.053
0.020
 
 CENTRES
 2012-13
 CENTRES
 2013-14
 DESHARNIAS 2012-13
 DESHARNAIS 2013-14



Desharnais offensive-zone numbers have been substantially lower this season; from his offensive-zone risk/reward rating, to his "shots-through" success-rate.

Desharnais is less involved in the offensive-zone this season. He's been involved in only 1.675 offensive-zone events per-minute played this season, compared to 1.939 last year. He's also recovering fewer loose-pucks, and creating fewer opposition turnovers.

His offensive-zone o-touch success-rate is substantially lower this season, and Desharnais has yet to complete a pass directed toward the slot. That said, his overall o-zone passing success-rate is higher this season.

Desharnais produced an impressive "true-shooting-percentage" among Montreal players last season. This means that Desharnais scored on a high percentage of his attempted shots than most other Montreal players. This success was carried by a solid success-rate getting his attempted shots through to the net (60.4%). Players with higher shots-though success-rates are generally taking shots from positions that are closer to the net that those with lower ratings. Subsequently, Desharnais' shots-through success-rate of only 37.5% this season represent a player playing a perimeter game.


51-DESHARNAIS
OFFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH)
CENTRES
 2012-13
CENTRES
2013-14
DESHARNAIS   2012-13
DESHARNAIS   2013-14
 
 
 
 
 
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING
0.61
0.51
0.66
0.36
OFFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS)
1.91
1.62
2.02
1.55
SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLES PER-MINUTE
0.128
0.170
0.116
0.080
OFFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE 
73.6%
66.7%
70.0%
60.0%
OFFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES / MP
0.436
0.515
0.429
0.399
OFFENSIVE-ZONE REBOUND LPR'S / MP
N/A
0.018
N/A
0.020
BLOCKED OPPOSITION PASSES (O-ZONE) /MP
0.079
0.089
0.086
0.060
DTOUCH EVENTS / MP
 
 
 
 
OFFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP
1.965
2.143
1.939
1.675
 
 
 
 
 
 O-ZONE DEFENSIVE-TOUCHES / MP
0.285
0.32
0.285
0.20
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEFENSIVE-TOUCHES/MP
0.207
0.21
0.202
0.12
OZONE DTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
72.6%
71.4%
70.9%
66.7%
 
 
 
 
 
O-ZONE OTOUCHES / MP
1.099
1.16
1.066
0.90
O-ZONE SUCCESSFUL OTOUCHES/ MP
0.646
0.59
0.667
0.48
OZONE OTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
58.8%
43.5%
62.6%
53.3%
 
 
 
 
 
DEFLECTIONS/MP
0.01
0.04
0.020
0.020
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES TO SLOT /MP
N/A
0.154
NA
0.060
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES TO SLOT /MP
N/A
0.041
N/A
0.000
O-ZONE PASSES TO SLOT SUCCESS-RATE
N/A
26.9%
N/A
0.0%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE PASSES /MP
0.593
0.479
0.619
0.459
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE PASSES /MP
0.368
0.290
0.414
0.319
O-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
62.1%
60.5%
66.8%
69.6%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE DEKES / MP
0.252
0.065
0.243
0.040
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE DEKES / MP
0.144
0.041
0.137
0.040
O-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
57.1%
63.6%
56.5%
100.0%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED O-ZONE WALL DEKES / MP
N/A
0.083
N/A
0.080
SUCCESSFUL O-ZONE WALL DEKES / MP
N/A
0.047
N/A
0.040
O-ZONE WALL DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
N/A
57.1%
N/A
50.0%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED SHOTS /MP
0.224
0.290
0.159
0.160
ATTEMPTED SHOTS BLOCKED BY OPPOSITION / MP
N/A
0.101
N/A
0.060
PERCENTAGE OF ATTEMPTED SHOTS BLOCKED BY OPPOSITION
N/A
34.7%
N/A
37.5%
ATTEMPTED SHOTS THAT MISS THE NET / MP
N/A
0.059
N/A
0.040
PERCENTAGE OF ATTEMPTED SHOTS THAT MISS THE NET
N/A
20.4%
N/A
25.0%
 
 
 
 
 
SHOTS THROUGH TO THE NET /MP
0.122
0.130
0.096
0.060
SHOTS THROUGH SUCCESS-RATE
54.7%
44.9%
60.4%
37.5%
TRUE SHOOTING-PERCENTAGE (GOALS / ATTEMPTED SHOTS)
5.6%
8.2%
7.3%
0.0%
 
 
 
 
 
GOALS / MP
0.012
0.024
0.012
0.000
ASSISTS / MP
0.021
0.012
0.022
0.000
POINTS / MP
0.033
0.036
0.033
0.000
         


*N/A indicated in some 2012-13 categories exist because those sub-categories were not tracked last year*



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