Thursday, October 3, 2013

One-game scouting report for Carey Price and James Reimer

From the season-opener between the Montreal Canadiens and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 1st, 2013

4-3 Leafs win.

James Reimer's ability to keep rebounds out of the slot carried his overall goaltender rating. Meanwhile, Carey Price's rating was hurt by his rebound control, but carried by his "big-save" percentage.

The 6'2", 208 lbs Reimer finished the 2013 regular season with a  19-8-9  record, a 2.46 goals against average, and a .924 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .915 during the regular season, and .923  during the playoffs.

The 6'3", 212 lbs. Price finished the 2013 regular season with a 21-13-7 record, a 2.59 goals against average, and a .905 save percentage. He has a career save percentage of .915 during the regular season, and .905 during the playoffs.

My scouting reports for goalies focus on their ability to make saves, make big saves, and control rebounds. The results of these attributes are added together to produce the goaltender's rating. The highest possible rating is 4.00, while the lowest possible rating is 0.00. The higher the value the better a goalie has played.

The first number involved in the calculation is the percentage of saves a goalie makes without giving up a rebound. For example, if a goalie makes 10 saves and gives up only 1 rebound his "no rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number in the calculation is the percentage of safe rebounds a goalie gives up for each rebound allowed. Rebounds deflected outside of the main slot are considered safe. As such, a safe rebound is defined as a rebound outside of an imaginary line drawn from each goalpost to the corresponding board-side hash mark. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie gives up 10 rebounds and deflects 9 of those pucks outside the slot, his "safe rebound percentage" is .900. Again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


The next number is the percentage of saves that would be considered "big saves". A big save is defined as any save made on a play that would be considered a traditional scoring chance. As an example of this calculation, if a goalie makes 5 big saves on 20 shots his "big save percentage" would be .250. Once again, the higher the number, the better a goalie performs.


I also track how a goalie controls the puck. I do this by tracking his successful or unsuccessful pass-attempts, as well as his successful or unsuccessful attempts to dump the puck out of his zone. The resulting numbers are used to produce a ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.


SHORT-HANDED GOALTENDING RATING

Despite his low short-handed "no rebound" percentage, Price still produced an above average SH goaltending rating of 1.96. His rating was saved by his impressive "big-save" percentage. He stopped 14 of 15 short-handed shots, but allowed 13 rebounds from those 14 saves. Eight of those 13 rebounds landed in the slot, and he made an impressive 8 saves on a shots that could be considered  scoring chances.

Price was successful with his only attempted dump the puck out while short-handed.

Reimer's short-handed play was far less involved, as he stopped all 4 shots he faced. He allowed 2 rebounds from those 4 saves, and 1 of those rebounds landed in the slot. Two of his 4 saves came on shots that are considered scoring chances.


PRICE
31
34
REIMER
O REBOUND %
0.071
0.500
O REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
0.385
0.500
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.571
0.500
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.933
1.000
SAVE %
 
31
34
 
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
1
0
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
0
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
N/A
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
 
31
34
 
GOALTENDER RATING
1.96
2.50
GOALTENDER RATING
 
31
34
 



OVERALL GOALTENDING RATING

Price's overall goaltending rating was hurt by the save-percentage he produced while his team was at even-strength, and short-handed . His average overall rating was helped by his ability to allow no rebound on 25% of the ES shots he faced. Overall, he stopped 34 of 38 shots.  Twenty-eight of those 34 saves produced rebounds, while 14 of those 28 rebounds landed in the slot. He made an impressive 14 saves on shots that are considered scoring-chances.

Price was successful with all 5 of his attempts to play the puck by way of a pass, or dump-out.

Reimer's above-average overall rating of 2.17 was helped by his impressive rebound control; specifically his ability to keep rebounds out of the slot. Overall, he stopped 34 of 37 shots. He allowed rebounds on 27 of those  34 saves, while only 9 of those 27 rebounds landed in the slot. Thirteen of his 34 saves were produced on Montreal scoring chances.

Reimer was successful with 6 of his 7 attempts to handle the puck by way of a pass, or dump-out.

PRICE
31
34
REIMER
NO REBOUND %
0.176
0.206
NO REBOUND %
SAFE REBOUND %
0.500
0.667
SAFE REBOUND %
BIG SAVE%
0.412
0.382
BIG SAVE%
SAVE %
0.895
0.919
SAVE %
 
31
34
 
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
4
6
SUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
0
1
UNSUCCESSFUL PUCK PLAYS
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
N/A
6.00
PUCK PLAYS RATIO
 
31
34
 
GOALTENDER RATING
1.98
2.17
GOALTENDER RATING
 
31
34
 


It's important to note that these numbers only represent these goalie's play during this one game. They are not meant to determine the better goalie long-term.

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