Thursday, October 31, 2013

Subban's defensive numbers are lower this season

Less-successful defensively, but still a rock with the puck on his stick

Any statement based on the assumption that PK Subban is a risk-taker and/or a liability in the defensive-zone is both without fact, and irresponsibly vague.

A risk/taker does not produce an above-average puck-possession success-rate. A liability doesn't have the second-best defensive-zone passing success-rate on his team both this season and last year. If we are going to have an informed conversation about PK Subban's play, we need to base our views on facts, rather than perceptions.

PK Subban is more involved in the play this season than he was last year. This is expressed by the number of events he's engaging in per-minute play, and quantified by a higher overall risk/reward this season despite a lower ratio of successful plays for every 1 unsuccessful play.

At even-strength, PK has produced a nearly identical ratio to last season, but his increased involvement has helped him produce a better risk/reward rating. Subban has produced both more offensive and more defensive-touches per-minute played this season.

Defensively, Subban has been less successful this season. His defensive-touch success-rate (in all 3 zones) is down 17% this season. This indicates that PK has been less successful removing puck-possession from the opposition this year. More specifically, his success-rate when attempting to remove possession by way of a body or stick check has gone from 81% to 14% in the offensive-zone, and from 80% to 56% in the defensive-zone. That said, don't be too shocked by the o-zone number, as it's only based on 7 events.

In terms of giveaways and takeaways, Subban's takeaway to giveaway ratio is slightly lower this season, and surprisingly below-average. That said, he has improved on his team-leading scoring-chance ratio from last season.


76-SUBBAN
RATINGS AND RATIOS
D-MEN
2012-13
D-MEN
2013-14
SUBBAN
2012-13
SUBBAN
2013-14
 
25.90
25.85
27.87
28.45
OVERALL RATIO
3.17
2.97
3.47
3.26
OVERALL RISK/REWARD RATING
2.04
2.19
2.64
2.74
 
 
 
 
 
ES RATIO
2.76
2.86
3.00
3.01
ES RISK/REWARD RATING
1.85
2.14
2.30
2.61
 
 
 
 
 
ES OTOUCHES / MP
2.064
2.190
2.576
2.820
ES SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE TOUCH %
70.7%
68.5%
75.4%
70.8%
ES DTOUCHES / MP
0.708
0.737
0.604
0.615
ES SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCH %
72.4%
62.4%
72.6%
55.6%
 
 
 
 
 
PP RATIO
4.47
4.11
4.66
4.65
PP SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE TOUCH %
82.8%
78.9%
83.1%
80.2%
SH RATIO
2.64
2.61
2.26
2.67
SH SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-TOUCH %
74.6%
63.2%
63.6%
55.6%
 
 
 
 
 
TAKEAWAY TO TURNOVER RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
2.64
2.60
2.43
2.32
SCORING CHANCE FOR/AGAINST RATIO (HIGHER IS BETTER)
0.56
0.70
0.98
1.15
         



DEFENSIVE-ZONE

Once again, this vague notion of liability in the defensive-zone needs to be clarified. Are they defining a liability as a player who generates a high-rate of turnovers? Or is it a player who struggles defensively?

Simply put, when PK Subban has the puck on his stick in the defensive-zone he loses possession only 24.6% of the time. The average turnover rate produced by Montreal defensemen is 29.6%. Expressed even more simply, PK has produced substantially more successful plays with the puck on his stick in the defensive-zone than any other Montreal defenseman. Expressed another way, over the span of 20 even-strength minutes played, Subban would produce an average of 31 successful puck-possession plays in the d-zone, while the average Habs d-man would produce 25. This translates to 6 fewer d-zone giveaways per-game with Subban.

With that said, Subban is not performing as well defensively as he did last season. He's engaging in more defensive-zone events per-minute, which shows a player spending more time in his zone. He's also been successful with a substantially lower percentage of his attempts to remove puck-possession from the opposition by way of a stick or body check. Subban is engaging in more defensive-touches per-minute, while producing fewer successful d-touches per-minute. Simply put, PK is defending more, but succeeding less. But, a liability this does not make.


76-SUBBAN
DEFENSIVE-ZONE (EVEN-STRENGTH)
DMEN
2012-13
D-MEN 
2013-14
SUBBAN 
2012-13
SUBBAN
2013-14
 
 
 
 
 
DEFENSIVE-ZONE RISK/REWARD RATING
1.31
1.44
1.58
1.65
DEFENSIVE-ZONE RATIO (SUCCESSFUL TO UNSUCCESSFUL PLAYS)
3.00
2.91
3.22
3.22
SUCCESSFUL DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLES PER-MINUTE
0.229
0.247
0.218
0.171
DEFENSIVE-ZONE PUCK-BATTLE WINNING-PERCENTAGE 
78.4%
66.7%
80.1%
56.0%
DEFENSIVE-ZONE LOOSE-PUCK RECOVERIES / MP
0.633
0.780
0.728
0.880
DEFENSIVE-ZONE REBOUND LPR'S / MP
N/A
0.022
N/A
0.012
BLOCKED OPPOSITION PASSES /MP
0.076
0.093
0.068
0.069
BLOCKED SHOTS/ MP
0.080
0.098
0.057
0.073
DTOUCH EVENTS / MP
 
 
 
 
DEFENSIVE-ZONE EVENTS / MP
2.627
2.935
3.001
3.129
 
 
 
 
 
 D-ZONE DTOUCHES / MP
0.529
0.655
0.466
0.542
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE DTOUCHES/MP
0.385
0.438
0.343
0.314
D-ZONE DTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
72.7%
66.9%
73.5%
57.9%
 
 
 
 
 
D-ZONE OTOUCHES / MP
1.311
1.328
1.612
1.520
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE OTOUCHES/ MP
0.953
0.934
1.219
1.149
D-ZONE OTOUCH SUCCESS-RATE
72.6%
70.4%
75.7%
75.6%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE D2D PASSES /MP
N/A
0.324
N/A
0.330
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE D2D PASSES /MP
N/A
0.280
N/A
0.273
D-ZONE D2D PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
N/A
86.5%
N/A
82.7%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE  STRETCH PASSES /MP
N/A
0.141
N/A
0.151
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE STRETCH PASSES /MP
N/A
0.098
N/A
0.106
D-ZONE STRETCH PASS SUCCESS-RATE
N/A
69.0%
N/A
70.3%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE PASSES /MP
1.074
0.569
1.177
0.607
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE PASSES /MP
0.805
0.388
0.916
0.456
D-ZONE PASSING SUCCESS-RATE
75.0%
68.1%
77.8%
75.2%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE DEKES / MP
0.072
0.068
0.173
0.192
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE DEKES / MP
0.048
0.048
0.135
0.151
D-ZONE DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
67.3%
70.2%
78.3%
78.7%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED D-ZONE WALL DEKES / MP
N/A
0.031
N/A
0.029
SUCCESSFUL D-ZONE WALL DEKES / MP
N/A
0.013
N/A
0.016
D-ZONE WALL DEKE SUCCESS-RATE
N/A
42.1%
N/A
57.1%
 
 
 
 
 
ATTEMPTED DUMP-OUT/ MP
0.156
0.182
0.251
0.204
SUCCESSFUL DUMP-OUTS / MP
0.099
0.108
0.168
0.147
DUMP-OUT SUCCESS-RATE
63.3%
59.4%
67.1%
72.0%
         


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