Sunday, August 31, 2014

Offensive-zone loose-puck recovery impact above replacement

The multitude of events tracked within this system allows us to compare almost any player metric against the value of a replacement player. This post will focus on each Montreal Canadiens player's offensive-zone LOOSE-PUCK-RECOVERY  impact above/below replacement.

This post is the third in a series where I'll be using specific offensive-zone metrics to communicate players' values above replacement. 

"Offensive-zone loose-puck-recovery impact above replacement" is used to compare the number of successful loose-puck-recoveries each player produced in the offensive-zone at EVEN-STRENGTH per-minute played with the number of  LPR's contributed by an average player at the same position. The higher the individual player's result versus a replacement player, the more often that player was able to acquire possession for his team in the offensive-zone by way of a loose-puck-recovery.

A loose-puck recovery in the offensive-zone occurs when a player gains control of a puck that was (at the time of acquiring possession) not in the possession of any other player on the ice.

OZLPRI-above replacement is calculated by subtracting the number of successful loose-puck recoveries an average player at a specific position (centre/defenseman/winger) averaged per-minute of ice-time from the number of LPR's per-minute the player in question averaged.

OZLPRI-above replacement value are important to remember when looking at players expected goal and expected shot values above replacement. EGV and ESV calculate a player's ability to create offense once in possession of the puck, but LPR's and forechecking also contribute to a team's ability to create offense.

This post uses data from all of the Montreal Canadiens 2013-14 regular season and 2014 playoff games.